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Plummeting US Dollar Share of Global FX Reserves
The shift is increasingly visible in reserve composition data. On January 20th, 2026, the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell below 40%, and on the following day, gold surpassed 30% of global FX reserves. For context, the last time the dollar fell below the 40% threshold was more than 30 years ago, on June 29th, 1995. Framed differently, roughly half of the world’s current population is under 30 years old, meaning that as of January 19th, 2026, half of the people alive today had never lived through a period in which the dollar represented less than 40% of global reserves. This is not a marginal datapoint; it is a historical shift that underscores how dramatically the reserve landscape is evolving.
Central Banks Lead Charge to a New Gold Standard
We believe this decline in the dollar’s reserve dominance alongside the rise in gold is not a short-term anomaly. Rather, it is indicative of a meaningful paradigm shift. In our view, central banks are increasingly acknowledging both the limitations and the embedded risks of reserve concentration in fiat currencies, particularly in an era characterized by higher sovereign debt burdens, heightened geopolitical fragmentation, and a growing desire for reserve resilience. If the current trend holds steady, gold reserves expanding 8.4% monthly on a YoY basis and dollar shrinking by 6.1%, gold will surpass the dollar to become the largest FX reserve before the end of 2026, assuming current prices.
Plummeting US Dollar Share of Global FX Reserves
The shift is increasingly visible in reserve composition data. On January 20th, 2026, the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell below 40%, and on the following day, gold surpassed 30% of global FX reserves. For context, the last time the dollar fell below the 40% threshold was more than 30 years ago, on June 29th, 1995. Framed differently, roughly half of the world’s current population is under 30 years old, meaning that as of January 19th, 2026, half of the people alive today had never lived through a period in which the dollar represented less than 40% of global reserves. This is not a marginal datapoint; it is a historical shift that underscores how dramatically the reserve landscape is evolving.
Central Banks Lead Charge to a New Gold Standard
We believe this decline in the dollar’s reserve dominance alongside the rise in gold is not a short-term anomaly. Rather, it is indicative of a meaningful paradigm shift. In our view, central banks are increasingly acknowledging both the limitations and the embedded risks of reserve concentration in fiat currencies, particularly in an era characterized by higher sovereign debt burdens, heightened geopolitical fragmentation, and a growing desire for reserve resilience. If the current trend holds steady, gold reserves expanding 8.4% monthly on a YoY basis and dollar shrinking by 6.1%, gold will surpass the dollar to become the largest FX reserve before the end of 2026, assuming current prices.
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