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MrSomm

Regisztráció: 2018-01-23 08:43:21

Hozzászólások száma: 4 377

Utolsó hozzászólás: 2026-09-19 12:32


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Financial Forecasts
144 015
péntek, 20:41

utolsó 20 hozzászólás

Financial Forecasts szombat, 12:32
#144021
Fresh supply-demand data published September 18 show that the ex-China gallium and germanium shortages are considerably more persistent than a normal commodity squeeze. Western prices are now at record levels and roughly 9–10× their 2023 levels, while China still supplied 98.9% of primary gallium and 68.6% of germanium in 2025. AI infrastructure, fiber optics and defense applications are adding demand rather than allowing the market to rebalance.  The most important new datapoint is the projected deficit. S&P Global estimates ex-China gallium capacity of only 20 tonnes by end-2026 against a roughly 678-tonne supply gap. Even assuming eight announced Western projects reach production, ex-China gallium capacity reaches only ~386 tonnes by 2030, leaving Western consumers dependent on China for about 65% of requirements. For germanium, five prospective ex-China refineries would cover only about 48% of projected 2030 demand. 
Financial Forecasts szombat, 12:29
#144020
Credit. A more tangible stress point appeared in AI infrastructure financing. Roughly $18bn of loans connected with Oracle’s Project Jupiter data center are reportedly trading around 89–91 cents on the dollar, with banks struggling to distribute the exposure. This is not systemic credit stress, but it validates the concern that huge AI capex requirements plus higher benchmark yields are beginning to test financing capacity. 
Financial Forecasts péntek, 12:51
#143985
  • Development: USA Rare Earth entered a strategic partnership with Pasqal and Riven Systems to develop next-generation rare-earth separation chemistry using autonomous laboratory experiments and quantum machine learning, with work tailored to feedstocks including Round Top material, third-party mixed rare-earth carbonate and recycled magnet-manufacturing swarf. 
  • Why it matters: Successful new extractants could reduce separation-stage count, equipment requirements, reagent consumption and therefore capital and operating costs across USAR’s integrated rare-earth flowsheets, but this is an R&D-stage collaboration with no demonstrated commercial performance or deployment timetable yet. 
Financial Forecasts csütörtök, 21:19
#143966
Ugy tunik, hogy a tegnapi eladasom nagyon rossz idozites volt.
Viszont akarhogyan nezem, amikor a FED elkezdett emelni vagy csokkenteni, akkor az esetek tobbsegeben nem volt gyors visszafordulas. Kicsit olyan ez a rali, mintha orulnenk, hogy nem varhato rosszabb es csak 2 emelest varnak. Holnap triple witching es BOJ dontes. Nem lepne meg, ha elfogyna a jokedva hetvege elott.
Financial Forecasts csütörtök, 07:14
#143927
Meglatjuk, nagyon ugy tunt, hogy hiaba eros az arany es ezust, a banyaszok nem kovettek le. Mehet az arany 5000$ fele, ha a banyaszokat 3800$-os arannyal arazzak. Viszont amikor korrigal az arany, akkor hajlamosak jobban kovetni lefele. Legalabb is igy tunt az elmult honapokban.
Szerintem nagyon megnott az eselye, hogy meglatogatjuk a 4000$ alatti szinteket. Es abban bizom, hogy jo veteli lehetosegek lesznek
Financial Forecasts szerda, 21:44
#143910
En eladtam az arany es ezust banyaszaim nagy reszet
Financial Forecasts szerda, 08:10
#143848
Ma reggel megvettem az elso adag Jen-t.
Ugyis tervezunk oda utazni, maximum ott elkoltjuk.
Egyebkent nem lepne meg, ha a FED emel, akkor BOJ nagyobbat fog emelni penteken.
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 21:17
#143786
Nem lepne meg, ha nem lenne eleg szamitasi kapacitas es azert kezdenek lassitani a fejlesztest. Mennyivel jobban hangzik, hogy azert lassitunk, mert torodunk a zemberekkel, minthogy pusztan nincs szamitasi kapacitas...
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 21:16
#143785
Meg ugy tunik nem dolt el.
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 10:38
#143749
BREAKING: Senate Republicans have released their "last, best, and final" draft of the Crypto Clarity Act, including an ethics proposal backed by President Trump.
The bill is now headed for a critical Senate vote on Tuesday.
The vote will require 60 votes to advance the legislation.
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 07:30
#143739
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 07:02
#143737
Ugy tunik, hogy a hetvegen nem erdemes a Perpetual olaj arat nezegetni. A WTI most is 98.7$
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 11:05
#143718
Az egyertelmu, hogy az USA-ban joval olcsobb az energia. Nemcsak az uzemenyag, minden energia. 
Csak az a baj, hogy ennek a kulonbozetnek az arat a szegenyebb orszagok es a kornyezet fizeti meg. De ez egy masik hosszabb tema :)
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 11:03
#143717
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 11:02
#143716
En erre gondoltam. EZ AI szamolt es nem volt idom utanna nezni jobban, de hihetonek tunik elsore.       
https://imgur.com/a/JBXHLNu ;    
     
https://imgur.com/a/rqxqeNj
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 10:43
#143714
Szerintem ami erdekes ebben a chartban, hogy hosszabb idotavon nezve az arany es fed rate iranya nem egyertelmuen ellenkezo. 
Egyebkent a dollar mennyiseg novekedese a fo hajtoero az arany aranak novekedeseben, legalabb is szerintem. 
https://imgur.com/a/nqzQbKY
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 10:37
#143713
A benzin es gazolaj ar dragulashoz erdemes lenne megnezni, hogy mennyi uzemanyagot tud venni az amerikai atlag fizetes az elmult idoszakban. Ha nem tevedek valami hasonlo kep lesz ott is, mint a FB-on terjedo magyar peldaban.
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 10:31
#143712
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 10:05
#143710
The net borrowing number is the one I would watch most closely for market implications. From January through August, net issuance was approximately $699B of bills, $540B of notes, and $262B of bonds, or about $1.50T total. That makes bills about 46.6% of net new debt. In August alone, Treasury added about $259B of bills versus $120B of notes and bonds, meaning roughly 68% of that month’s incremental borrowing was short-term.  
 
This distinction matters enormously. The 85% figure looks alarming if interpreted as “85% of new U.S. debt is short term,” but that isn’t what it means. Bills mature every few weeks or months and get reissued repeatedly, so refinancing creates huge gross issuance volumes. The actual outstanding stock is much less concentrated: bills were about 22.2% of marketable Treasury debt at the end of July 2026, with roughly $7T of bills outstanding.  
  
There is nevertheless a noticeable shift toward bills at the margin. Treasury explicitly says it plans to handle seasonal or unexpected financing requirements through changes in bill issuance, while keeping nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes broadly unchanged. It also expected to reduce some short-dated bill auction sizes during September because of tax receipts, before increasing bill sizes again in October.  
   
So the figure I would use for investment analysis is: ~47% of 2026 YTD net new Treasury borrowing has gone short-term, versus ~85% of gross/refinancing-heavy issuance. August accelerated to ~68% short-term on a net basis.
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 09:59
#143709
SIFMA’s September 8 update reports $21.8 trillion of gross Treasury issuance through August 2026.  SIFMA reported long-term Treasury issuance of $1.2211T in 1Q26 and $1.2518T in 2Q26; bills were 85.0% of issuance in Q1 and 84.0% in Q2. 

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