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MrSomm

Regisztráció: 2018-01-23 08:43:21

Hozzászólások száma: 4 270

Utolsó hozzászólás: 2026-08-08 22:18


Tapasztalat: 2
Aktivitás: 5
Népszerűség: 5

Kedvenc topikok db Utolsó hozzászólás

Financial Forecasts
142 030
2026. 07. 25. 16:25

utolsó 20 hozzászólás

Financial Forecasts szombat, 22:18
#142616
Jo ceg, kielemeztem. De akkor tul draga volt. Mostanaban nem volt idom megnezni.
Egyebkent a lengyeleknel van par masik erdekes projekt. A nevuk sajnos nem ugrik be hirtelen
Financial Forecasts szombat, 22:17
#142615
Ugy tunik a kobalttal kapcsolatban is voltak jobban ertesultek. 
A lithium ettol fuggetlen tovabbra is lefele ment. Nekem emiatt nem lett nagyobb LAC pakkom. 
A grafitban meg varok valami nagy bejelentest, mert teljesen ertelmetlen volt a legutobbi vamokkal kapcsolatos dontes. Azert nem lett bunteto vam, mert nem volt mukodo banya/feldolgozo az USA-ban es emiatt nem volt senki hatranyban.
De mar ott a Vidalia, NVX… szoval johet a vedovam
Financial Forecasts szombat, 22:12
#142613
Megertem az ugralast. Nem egyszeru nezni, hogy nemelyik reszveny beszakad 40-60%-ot.
Nekem szemely szerint az ugralas eddig nem hozott semmi jot.
Az elozo rez banyat ajanlom atnezni. Szerintem baromi jo a risk reward/optionality. A Yerington onmagaban tobbet er, mint amire most arazva van. 
Financial Forecasts szombat, 21:59
#142612
Erdemes ezeken kivul megnezni a Lion fo tulajdonosait es a tulajdonosok hol es mit csinaltak korabban.
Financial Forecasts szombat, 21:56
#142611
At C$0.275, Lion’s current market cap is about C$118.6m, or roughly US$85m. 
  
The key starting point is Yerington in Nevada. The 2025 PFS gives us something we can actually value:
  • 2.14 billion lbs of Proven & Probable copper reserves
  • another 989 million lbs M&I resources outside reserves
  • another 443 million lbs Inferred
  • 120 million lbs/year average copper production
  • 12-year mine life
  • AISC of $2.67/lb
  • initial capex of $724m
  • post-tax NPV(7%) of $694m at only $4.30/lb copper
  • 14.6% IRR
Nuton/Rio Tinto has the right to earn at least 65% of the project package, so I use a conservative 35% attributable value for Lion. $694m × 35% = about $243m attributable Yerington NPV. Compare that with Lion’s current market cap of roughly US$85m: $85m / $243m = about 0.35x NAV. That is the key point for me. 
At today’s share price, the market can basically be explained by valuing Lion’s share of Yerington at around 0.35x its PFS NAV — a fairly normal discount for a pre-construction copper developer still going through DFS, permitting and financing. 
And that PFS uses $4.30 copper. At the PFS’s published $5.38/lb sensitivity, Yerington’s post-tax NPV rises to $1.39 billion. Lion’s 35% share would be about $486.5m versus an ~$85m current market cap. 
    
Then comes Bear. This week Lion announced the maiden NI 43-101-compliant Bear resource:
  • 6.71 billion lbs Cu Indicated
  • 8.77 billion lbs Cu Inferred
  • total: 15.48 billion lbs copper
For perspective, Bear alone contains more than 7x the copper contained in Yerington’s current P&P reserves. And around 43% of Bear’s contained copper is already in the Indicated category. 
    
So my thesis is fairly simple: Yerington alone can explain Lion’s current valuation. The market is currently paying roughly 0.35x Lion’s conservative 35% share of the existing Yerington PFS NAV. Everything that is not needed to make that valuation work is optionality:
  • Bear’s 15.48 billion lbs of copper
  • Lion’s ~33.7% Falcon Copper ownership
  • Falcon’s U.S. smelter/critical-mineral strategy
  • the other Lion exploration assets and royalty interests
  • any additional Yerington/Bear district expansion

Financial Forecasts szombat, 21:46
#142610
Before looking at Lion Copper itself, I think it is important to understand some of the people and assets behind it. 
C. Travis Naugle is a key figure. He is a mining engineer, Lion director/co-chairman, founder and Executive Chairman of Falcon Copper, and owns roughly 8.8% of Falcon personally. His background combines mine development, operations and mining transactions. 
   
Tony Alford is Lion’s largest shareholder and a director. The Alford family owns a very significant position in Lion, and Alford has continued investing personal capital through shares and convertible debt. 
   
Why does Falcon matter? Lion owns about 33.7% of Falcon Copper, plus additional Falcon warrants. Falcon is a private U.S.-focused copper and critical-minerals company with two main areas:
  • U.S. copper/critical-mineral exploration projects
  • Domestic copper smelting and refining
The most interesting asset is Falcon’s proposed 400,000+ tonne-per-year primary copper smelter in Arizona. For perspective:
  • Rio Tinto Kennecott: roughly 300kt/year
  • Freeport Miami: roughly 300kt/year
  • Glencore Horne in Canada: roughly 200kt/year
If Falcon builds what it is proposing, it could be larger than either currently operating U.S. primary copper smelter by nameplate capacity. The project is still in development. Engineering and permitting are progressing, but there is no published feasibility study, final capex, financing package or construction decision yet. In April 2026 Falcon also signed an MoU with Glencore. The proposed relationship could include:
  • up to 1.6 million tonnes of copper concentrate supply per year
  • capital participation
  • logistics
  • marketing
  • offtake
It is still non-binding, but concentrate supply is critical for any future smelter, so Glencore’s involvement is significant. Falcon also already has exposure to the U.S. government critical-minerals permitting framework.
  • Falcon projects have entered FAST-41
  • Muncy Creek in Nevada completed its federal environmental review in 2026
  • Blue Copper in Montana is also on the federal permitting dashboard
This does not mean Falcon has government financing. But it shows that the company is already operating inside the federal critical-minerals framework. This is where Naugle becomes particularly relevant. Companies around him now have relationships involving:
  • Rio Tinto / Kennecott
  • Rio Tinto / Nuton
  • Freeport-McMoRan
  • Glencore
A junior cannot finance a multi-billion-dollar smelter alone. It would need strategic partners, project debt, government support and probably major outside capital. So Falcon is still speculative, but the structure around it is becoming interesting. For Lion investors the key point is simple: Lion owns roughly one-third of Falcon. That gives Lion shareholders indirect exposure to Falcon’s mining projects, FAST-41 assets, Glencore relationship and proposed U.S. smelter. This is one reason I think understanding Naugle, Alford and Falcon is important before looking at Lion itself. Next post: Lion Copper, Yerington, Bear and Nuton/Rio Tinto.
Financial Forecasts szombat, 20:29
#142607
WWR-be jol belenyultak 🫣
Beszeltuk itt is. Mikor duplaztak a reszvenyszamot eladtam. Hmm… de talan a novemberi SRL eladasom nagyobb hiba volt. Meg mindig nem ertem, hogyan tamogatjak a kinai tulajdonban allo ceget.
Most van NVX, NMG, SYR. Jo lenne, ha csepegne ide is egy kis forgalom.
NVX-ben higitottam is penteken, akkor nem is tudtam meg errol a hirrol. Mondjuk megmagyarazza a 10-30-50%-os teljesitmenyt a szektorban
Financial Forecasts péntek, 17:53
#142582
“Amit "par szazalekos kulonbsegnek" irsz a fogyas merteket illetoen, az head-to-head osszehasonlitasban 47%!”
Ezt kifejtened kicsit jobban?
Financial Forecasts szerda, 10:48
#142479
Az egesz kritikus asvany es uran szektort veszik. 
Szoval nem latom kiugronak a teljesitmenyuket.
Financial Forecasts szerda, 08:55
#142473
Reuters, citing a senior Iranian source involved in the talks, said discussions were being held on a temporary plan and that Iran wants control over inbound shipping and visibility over outbound traffic, with the ability to intervene if necessary. The outbound lane would run between Iran and Oman, with exit clearance granted through Oman after notifying Tehran.The source told Reuters that Iran “is unlikely to change its position” as it has already dropped its initial demand for full control over traffic in both directions.
    
AP, citing two regional officials, reported a similar framework, with ships entering via an Iranian-controlled route and exiting via an Omani one. It also said service fees would be charged for security and environmental protection, and added that any deal would be linked to lifting the US blockade on Iran’s ports.
Financial Forecasts szerda, 08:52
#142472
Optikai kabeleket es dron alakatreszeket is keszulnek kitiltani az USA-bol…
Az UMAC nem veletlenul ment a napokban szepet
Financial Forecasts szerda, 08:51
#142471
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 08:04
#142390
Azt nem ertem, hogyha ennyire le vannak maradva, akkor kik nem kapnak elegendo szamitasi kapacitast. Mert nekem eleg jol mukodnek a modellek.
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 08:03
#142389
A recent market outlook from energy intelligence firm Currence estimates that between 30% and 50% of the large-scale data center capacity expected to come online in 2026 will likely be delayed, due to mounting power constraints, construction bottlenecks and increasingly unreliable project timelines.
The report, which tracks 777 announced AI factories and large data centers exceeding 50 megawatts, shows an industry announcing projects far faster than it can build them. Since 2024, developers have announced approximately 190 gigawatts of future capacity, with approximately 16 GW scheduled to begin operations during 2026.
  
However, Currence found that only about 5 GW of that capacity is currently under construction, leaving roughly 11 GW remains in the announced stage with no visible construction progress, despite typical build timelines of 12–18 months.
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 08:03
#142388
Jah es az elmult nehany evben valami zavar folyamatosan van a rez kinalatban, foldrenges, ken hiany, logisztikai zavarok….
Financial Forecasts hétfő, 08:01
#142387
En is azt gondolom, hogy magasabban lesz a rez ara. 
Viszont az nem igaz, hogy nem lehet helyettesiteni. 
Aluminiummal nagyon sok helyen lehetseges. Csak nagyobb atmeroju kabelre van szukseg. Nem minden esetben, de lehetseges. 
Szerintem altalanossagban az inflacio utoleri a nyersanyag arakat. Foleg azokat, amiket az adatkozpontokban hasznalnak. Viszont az altalad is emlitett romlo reztartalom nehezebbe teszi a kitermelest. Igy a kinalat nem tud elszaladni. 
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 12:01
#142376
Azon csodalkozom, hogy eddig nem jott a szokasos irani valasz: "Nem is igaz, nem vbeszelunk senkivel". 
Trump panaszkodik az iraniakra, pedig csak ugyanazt csinaljak, mint O... ossze vissza beszelnek, betartanak a masiknak, szandekosan keresztbe huznak. 
Ha hetfo reggeli nem lesz irani eros tagadas, akkor tenyleg lehet valami rovidebb tavu megnyugvas.
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 10:19
#142374
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 09:15
#142373
Financial Forecasts vasárnap, 09:09
#142372

Revenue growth, Operating income, CAPEX es FCF osszehasonlitasa AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, META es APPL
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