Bármilyen gazdasági elemzés, gondolat, kereskedési és befektetési ötlet megosztható személyeskedés nélkül. Az alternatív megközelítések is helyet kapnak.
Nem vitatom az állításod. S még a következtetésed is helyes lehet(nem tudom megítélni). Én csak arra célzok, amit a chart mutat. Nem a makró elemzés a lényeg hanem amit tradelni lehet. Eurusd új napi csúcson. Fordulhatna 1.075 körül de akkor is csak korrekció valószínű. SP500-on PA pedig ott van ahonnan fordulhat felfelé ha ez a napi záró (61 fibo felett-4000- H4 trendvonalig szúrt le-utolsó alj-3025-ről húzva). 3960 alatt zárva talán short tovább. Kiderül. SP500 3700 alatt majd lesz akkor el hiszem, h short a piac. Szubjektive.
EUR/USD semmi változás a technika képben. Még csak veszélyben sincs a bull folytatás. Még napi pivot közelébe se jött le. H1 rángatás azt annyi. Mire beírom újra napi csúcson.+ US500 utolsó emelkedés (3025-ről) 61 fiboja felett és ott is fog zárni a naposon… Holnap mehet tovább. Piac szarik a FED-re…. Még dollár gyengül piac long esélyes. Szvsz. Nincs itt semmi látnivaló.
A EUR/usd napi (heti)csúcs közelében… Ha dollár nem fordul…. piac se nagyon..elég jó korrelációt mutatott elmúlt időben. Szerintem sincs sok bull támogató benne, de piac eddig is szart rá… kamat az lett amit ígértek kit érdekel mi lesz februárban… az még messze van.
"I don't think SEP projections qualify as projecting a recession but economy will have very slow growth."" 4.7% unemployment rate is still a strong labor market. ""Firms want to hold on to workers as it's been hard to hire." "That doesn't sound like a labor market that will have a lot of layoffs."" Having moved so quickly, we think the appropriate thing to do is to move to a slower pace of rate hikes."" That will allow us to better balance risks.""SEP reflects any data that comes out before the meeting and during the meeting. Participants can even change their dots during the meeting."" By now we would have expected faster progress on inflation."
"We will make February decision based on financial conditions, economy."" How high to raise rates depends on progress on inflation, where financial conditions are and how restrictive we think we need to be." "At a certain point policy, will be restrictive enough." "Strong view on FOMC is we need to hold rates at peak until we are really confident inflation is coming down in a sustained way."" Expect shelter inflation to come down sometime next year."" Expectation services inflation will not move down quickly, so we'll have to raise rates higher. That's why we have a higher peak rate."
"Important financial conditions reflect our policy restraint."" Focus is not on short-term moves in financial conditions, but persistent moves."" We are not at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance yet." "I would also point you to our projections for our peak level of the funds rate."" Fed policymaker projections are best assessment of where Fed policy rate will be."" At each subsequent SEP this year, we have increased our estimates of peak rate." "Can't tell you confidently we won't upgrade the peak at next meeting too, depends on data."" If data comes in worse, peak could move up but could also move down if inflation data is soft." "Earlier this year was important to move quickly on rates; now not so important how fast we go."" Ultimate level of rates is more important."
"50 basis point rate hike is still large."" We still have some way to go on rate hikes. ""Our projections are not a plan; no certainty on the economy."" Our decisions will depend on incoming data in its totality."" We will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting."" We are taking forceful steps."" Historical record cautions strongly against premature loosening."" We still stay the course to get the job done."
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