Bármilyen gazdasági elemzés, gondolat, kereskedési és befektetési ötlet megosztható személyeskedés nélkül. Az alternatív megközelítések is helyet kapnak.
De gonosz! :-) Valami más:Michael Hartnett, BofA | The Last Hike - "the next 3 meetings" (Dec 14th , Feb 1st, Mar 22nd), , they could be any of the following: > crashing oil says Fed goes 50/25/0bps Dec/Feb/Mar, > cooling housing says 50/25/25bps, > solid credit market says 50/50/25bps, > hot labor market 50/50/50bps - "lack of Wall St conviction forgivable." - "China exports plunge -8.7% in Nov, ending 2 strong years of sole growth spot (no supply chain issues here) for China economy...no surprise China reopening to tap excess savings, quell civil unrest, reduce 18% youth unemployment." - Nov saw a 50% record return from China HY bonds, with the bond of the largest property developer Country Garden is up >400% in 22 trading days. "All great bull markets start in credit so if China credit gains stick" this may be the turning point, and the start of the Fed's own pivot. - the 30-year TSY yield is -100bps in the past 6 weeks, and follows the biggest loss since 1920 - "peak yields, peak US$, peak credit spreads" and with financial conditions easing, stocks are up 15% from Oct peak in CPI & pessimism. And with the yield curve, banks and oil all screaming “recession” into Q4 earnings that is the story of 2022... but for the contrarian pain trade is SPX >4.4k on Mar 31st on no landing in Q1... and then under 3.6k Dec 31st on hard landing H2 - "inflation is Dead, Long Live Inflation": yes, inflation will fall in '23; and yields are rallying; but not for long: as the big 3 secular themes for 2020s are (1) climate change (2) globalization to regionalization and (3) inequality to inclusion... all of which are inflationary. The leadership will shift from deflation to inflation assets at early stage (note healthcare + tech still >40% ACWI even excluding GOOG, TSLA); - buy 2023 dips in new leadership of commodities, banks, small cap, EU, EM, value stocks, assets that perform in backdrop of high but stable inflation; avoid end-of-era QE winners of credit, tech stocks, private equity, private credit; and note in '23 Fed likely admits defeat on 2% CPI, which weakens US dollar & reverses 15- year bull markets of US equities over EAFE & EM stock markets (Chart 6) - Wall Street losses in ’22 driven by huge monetary tightening (276 rate hikes YTD); but in 2023 Fed will hike for last time with BofA forecasting March 22nd as the last FOMC hike date. And while recent disinflationary stock market history says “buy the last hike,” the correct strategy in the inflationary 70s/80s was “sell the last hike."
Utolsó üzenet eszter-nek, gondolkozom a KitchenAid-en, amazonon jókat írták róla, szerintem eppenhogy, de még tudja csinálni, amit kell, és az ára nagyon jó.
Csak akkor, ha bejon az armageddon joslatod, de az nem fog megtortenni. :) Jon egy C eses 2800/3200 savba es csokolom. Kozepes recesszio, aztan nyomdaszsunok akcioznak.
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