Bármilyen gazdasági elemzés, gondolat, kereskedési és befektetési ötlet megosztható személyeskedés nélkül. Az alternatív megközelítések is helyet kapnak.
Egy kis érdekesség, amit találtam így péntekre: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 😥😃😬😃😃 S&P500 days of the week returns since 1928 http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20220603v00xvpx39.jpeg (hátha Cicánknak 1 nap alatt péntekre meglesz az SP 5k)
Egyébként ez a video megérne egy jó nagy vitát. Jó anyag, mint magyar viszonokhoz képest az elemzesikozpont esetében általában igaz, de teljesen téves következtetések adódnak belőle a következő évekre.
Egy érdekes vélemény az interest rate hike-ról és hawkish central bankokról: "According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) the total global debt to GDP reached 348% as of 1Q2022 which is very close to the all-time high level. Therefore the total amount of debt (financial leverage) in the global financial system has never been higher. In my opinion, central banks need to significantly reduce debt-to-GDP ratios at all costs so that we can talk about some financial stability again in a few years. Therefore, in my opinion, despite the fact that the key central banks have been talking quite hard on inflation recently in order to prevent inflation expectations from significant de-anchoring, in fact the harsh reality is that the massive inflation is actually very convenient for them because this development helps a lot with debt ratios, which I mentioned above, thanks to the rapid growth of nominal GDP. In addition, in my opinion, if the key central banks raised interest rates "only" to so-called neutral levels at around 2.5%-3%, we would soon have a deep global economic recession, a global debt crisis and a bear market in most financial assets. All in all the key central banks are in an extremely tricky position at the moment. My take from all of this is the following base case scenario: The key central banks will keep on talking hawkish while the actual monetary policy setup will continue to be extremely loose with just a few base interest rate hikes and continuation of real inflation-adjusted interest rates in deeply negative territory across the yield curves in order to slash debt-to-GDP ratios significantly during the upcoming years so that the global financial stability will be preserved at least to some extent."
Fától az erdőt - gazdaságról vegyesen