EUR/USD  

2014. október 14. - 13:57:

link

pl. Expanded Flat, ahol a "b" új aljat üt, DE korrektív szerkezettel (tehát nem impulzívan).

Halkan hozzáteszem, hogy tényleg csak azok számára használhatók ezek az EWT alakzatok, akik már "beszélik" az EWT-t. Ők tudják csak, hogy hol kell/lehet ezek valamelyikére számítani, mit mond az árfolyamgörbe a tömegpszichéről, ők veszik észre az alakzat fejlődése közben, hogy változik-e esetleg a "hangulat" és milyen irányba.

EWT ismeret nélkül a gyakorlatban ez nem több irka-firkánál..

Tegnapi FED ules ota 1.5%ot erosodott az usd mindennel szemben.
A sok forintos kerdes hogy hol all meg az alja - mar ha megall.
Szarvasvadasz abrajaban a "b" pont lejjebb van mint a "3 vagy c". Ez annak aki beragadt esetleg a Long certibe felettebb kellemetlen. Ha azonban korrektiv a mozgas akkor nem igazan ertem hogyan lehetne a "b" lejjebb mint a "3 vagy c". Ha ezt segitene valaki megerteni megkoszonnem.

eur huf: ev vegen 300 korul vagy kicsivel alatta.
Jovo evre 310-320 kozotti atlag felszurasokkal 320 fole. 330 fole nem varnam. de szignifikans Forint gyengulest varnek

uraim, bocsánat a félig off kérdésért, de ti eurhuf v. usdhuf ügyben mit valószínűsítenétek? :)

kösz... azóta is emlékezetben tartom ezt a hsz-edet. )

bár van egy kósza sejtésem, hogy a "fa alá" keveredés előtt lesz még benne egy-két figurázás: link

Háát... Nemrég a Dax pánikban megkaptam a magamét hogy ugyan 8400 a Dax de felmehetne 9000 fölé. Akkor írta valaki na de mi hajtaná fel? S felment. De még volt QE.
Na de azután mi hajtaná fel 2200-ra?

link

"...and quantitative easing can postpone but not repeal this law."

szóval igen, jöhet a nagy reccs valóban...

csupán annyi volna a picike bibi, hogy az agonizálási folyamat heveny javuló fázisaiban spx-et akár 2200+ xxx szintre is fellőhetik előtte. :)

Akkor jöhet a nagy reccs :)

"

Quantitative Easing Ends And Sets Up Next Market Crash

<Wall Street Sector Selector Staff, October 28, 2014 4:28 pm>

-------------------

Quantitative easing draws to a close on Wednesday and many suggest it has sown the seeds for the next market crash.

Quantitative easing has been the experimental program now drawing to a close as the Federal Reserve ends its bond buying program on Wednesday, October 29th. Widely credited with staving off another Great Depression, the program has also been vilified for substantially increasing the income inequality and the gap between haves and have nots in the United States and around the world. Many analysts also suggest that the quantitative easing program, while saving the global financial system this time, has already set the stage for yet another financial collapse.

U.S. stocks have soared since the onset of quantitative easing with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gaining more than 10,000 points since its closing low of 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. Much of this 160% gain has been credited to quantitative easing and investors search for yield in today's zero interest rate environment.

Has the program been a success?

No one will know until we look back through the lens of 20/20 hindsight, but several aspects of the program are already clear.


1. Quantitative easing will end.

The Federal Reserve has been very careful not to spook markets and they've carefully telegraphed their intention to terminate the program. Furthermore, many argue that the Fed has run out of room to continue buying more bonds as the U.S. deficit has fallen and so the supply of fresh bonds is limited.

The Fed must also consider what ammunition it might have available should a new financial shock occur or a new recession or deflation enter the global and domestic financial picture. The Fed can't initiate a new round of quantitative easing if it hasn't stopped the old one, nor can it lower interest rates if it first doesn't raise them.


2. Quantitative easing has blown massive asset bubbles.

Quantitative easing has triggered one of the biggest bull markets in history but has also created unintended consequences like growing income inequality and punishing savers with zero interest rates for a prolonged period of time. Many also argue that the Fed has created massive asset bubbles in stocks, (NYSEARCA:SPY) real estate (NYSEARCA:IYR) and (NYSEARCA:TLT) bonds that can only one day implode.

Many indicators point to overvaluation in stocks, bonds and real estate, and analysts blame Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's easy money policies for having set the groundwork for the sub-prime loan meltdown that led to the 2008 financial crisis.



What Comes After Quantitative Easing?

Some say "no sweat," that the stock market has already priced quantitative easing into the picture, and the recent rally seems to confirm this outlook. Others point to the fact that the stock market has risen during every episode of quantitative easing and that it has fallen when the Fed "pulled the punch bowl."

The answer to the question of "what next" is that no one knows. Markets have become completely addicted to easy money and have risen and fallen on just the words and promises of Fed officials. This was clearly seen during the recent correction that suddenly stopped when Fed President James Bullard suggested the possibility of a "QE4." How markets react to the cessation of this support is unknown but participants seem to be counting on the fact or promise that the "Fed has their backs."

Whether or not this can continue is about to be discovered.


Will There Be QE4?

The Fed is ending its quantitative easing program just as the global economy seems to be drastically slowing and whiffs of deflation are in the air at home and abroad. Europe is a basket case, Japan is worse and China is slowing. At home, labor markets and economic reports are uneven and so a good argument can be made that if the economy fails to continue improving or a new recession emerges, that a new round of quantitative easing is a likely possibility.

Big problems loom ahead with the retirement of the Baby Boom, wage inequality and the normal business cycle (which even the Fed can't repeal) and QE4 would be expected and even demanded by investors should things start to get ugly again.

Quantitative easing will also gain support if deflation becomes a factor or if the dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) continues to gain strength. A strong U.S. dollar will make exports more expensive and hurt U.S. companies with global exposure. It will also hurt emerging markets which are thought to be an important part of U.S. sales abroad.

A rising dollar is typically correlated with falling global stock markets, which has already happened, and dollar carry trades will be unwound and so add further instability to the global financial system.

So the Fed now finds itself caught between the rock and the proverbial hard place. It needs to unwind quantitative easing but global stock markets have become addicted to its largess. It has run out of room for maneuvering just as the global economy starts to noticeably slow. A rising dollar complicates the picture.

For now, the Fed will have to try to jawbone markets higher, just as Mario Draghi has done for two years in Europe. Draghi is a paper tiger and people are starting to figure that out. If they draw the same conclusion about the Fed, the dawn of the next stock market crash could be here.

So love it or hate it, quantitative easing is over and a solid argument can be made that it has created several asset bubbles and so has sown the seeds for a new financial market crash. Indicators like Tobin's Q and Shiller's Cape Ratio put the stock market some 50-80% above historical norms and bond yields have been plumbing new lows.

Some say real estate is 15-50% overpriced thanks to the rocket fuel of zero interest rates. Record property values have been noted around the world in countries like England, Australia, Germany and Canada and in the United States, junk bond issuance hit a record in 2013. However, just recently, housing price growth has started to slow. Is this a coincidence or an offshoot of the realization that quantitative easing is coming to an end?

The last word: My view is that what the Fed does best is blow bubbles and set the stage for the next crash. Dr. Greenspan, "the Maestro," has already proven this, Fed watchers and even Fed officials say that it's hard for the Fed "to get it right."

History indicates that Dr. Yellen and Company are about to prove this again, although no one knows when.

The Fed is powerful but not omnipotent. It can engineer financial markets and flood the system with liquidity and lower interest rates to stimulate stock buying and other business activity.

But it cannot repeal the business cycle of expansion and recession, and it especially cannot refute the law of reversion to the mean. This mathematical concept tells us that prices always return to an average level from either overbought or oversold levels, and quantitative easing can postpone but not repeal this law.

When that reversion to mean might come to a brokerage account near you is unknown. But it will come, and that moment will present you with either a great opportunity or an epic disaster. The outcome is up to you.

"

(idézve egy másolásvédett hírlevélből, a html kódból kiszedegetve) :)

igy mar jol ertheto, koszi a korrekciot.

EU: továbbra is korrektív szerkezetű az emelkedés. A korábbi posztban az 1.283 alá zárás 1.263 akart lenni...

Két lehetséges verzió a korrekció folytatására zölddel illetve pinkkkel jelölve. H4-en és afölött 1.27 alá zárás a zöldet valószínűsíti.

Napos EU futi:
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Egyébként:
"vagy legalább is a kamatdöntési közlemény nem tartalmaz olyan utalásokat, melyek szerint csúszhatna is a jövő év közepére árazott kamatemelés, valamint csütörtökön 3% feletti évesített gazdasági növekedésről számolnak be a tengerentúlon, úgy az amerikai dollár erősödhet a héten a legtöbb devizával szemben. "

Elemzés lentebb:
fülecsésze 1.29-s nyakvonallal, tehát dollárgyengülésről ír itt..

Jó tudni, hogy most jött erről valami elemzés :) Köszi.

A QE kivezetése szerinted erősíti vagy gyengíti majd a dollárt?

Köszi.

961

Megadnád a hozzászólás számát, ahol meg tudom nézni? Köszi.
Azért Elliotból csak az alapokkal vagyok tisztában.