Topiknyitó: Portfolio 2010. 04. 02. 08:49

Ázsia: mérsékelt optimizmus  

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Mérsékelt optimizmus és zömében enyhe pozitív elmozdulások jellemezték az ázsiai börzéken a kereskedés irányát. Jót tett a hangulatnak a tegnapi jó amerikai foglalkoztatottsági adat és az amerikai indexek erősödése is. A főbb indexek közül az 1...

a teljes cikk: http://www.portfolio.hu/cikkek.tdp?k=1&i=131019
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pomperj 2016. 09. 09. 16:48
Előzmény: #3698  pomperj
#3700
1)Itt a DB elemzese a bond beszakadasrol:

link

Azt gondolam, hogy SPY egy ideig...ha lassu les za szkadas es a penz kimenekulese nem panikos. szoval, akkor SPY meg emelkedhet is kozben az erosodo penzfolyamtol.

A mai nap ramcafol: nem szep lassu a folyamat, hanem eleg durva.

2)A DB ma szalguld, mint a legnagyobb bond kereskedo, most ott dol a penz. Es ez meg az eleje. A "DB lehetosegek" topic meg persze hallgat. Dehat, igy szokott az lenni.
gykiss99 2016. 09. 09. 16:38
Előzmény: #3698  pomperj
#3699
És az USDJPY-t hogy látod? Ha esik az SPX, akkor az sem emelkedik a dollárerősödés ellenére. Vagy rosszul gondolom?
pomperj 2016. 09. 09. 16:09
Előzmény: #3697  gykiss99
#3698
Igen.
A bond market az elefant a piacok kozott, a tobbi meg maris ugy tancol, ahogy elefant trombital.

Viszont nagyon bejott annak, aki megjatszotta javasolt 30y futures-t; remelem sokan vannak.
Ma ebben betyarnagy kaszalas van. De meg nem is kell eladni. Eleg a stoplosst a napi minimum ala tenni es kivarni a tobbi nyereseget. A kovetkezo 2 het megkeresheti a zsiroskenyerre valot;-)

A Dollar megy a bond piac utan; nekem eleg vilagosnak latszik, hogy a piac elkezdte bearazni a FED kamat emelest...eloszor es legjobban a hosszu bondokon latszik. A Yield gorbe gyorsan laposodik, az meg ugye... recessziot szokott jelezni.
Majdnem mindegy hogy september vagy novemberben lesz Yellen eleg batorsaga: mar sarokba van szoritva: Nemcsak a bankrendszer csontjai zorognek es amiatt kell emelni, de az allam finanszirozasa se fog menni anelkul...vagy recessziot akarhat inkabb?
Sakk-matt.

Nezd meg a bond futurest. Ha eddig USD habozott is, innen az 1.11 utolso support letorese aligha lesz nehez.
gykiss99 2016. 09. 09. 15:49
Előzmény: #3695  pomperj
#3697
János, USB jól beszakadt, USD elkezdett erősödni. Kérdés, mennyire lesz limitált az erősödés.
bgyu 2016. 09. 09. 11:53
Előzmény: #3694  pomperj
#3696
Usd nem mindennel szemben erősödik, Jpy-vel, Eur- val nem. Pedig USB megint esik. AudUsd-re érdemes figyelni.
pomperj 2016. 09. 09. 11:29
Előzmény: #3671  pomperj
#3695
1)Tranocean Offshore, RIG,
most hosszu es rovid tavra is kivalo vetelnek latszik.

Hogy vilagos legyen: nagyjabol olyan jo, mint PBR volt fel eve.
Azota PBR 3.0 USD szintrol 10,5-re emelkedett.
link

PBR-t "az evtized legjobb vetelenek" gondoltam akkor; es PBR +200% utan, meg mindig kivalo vetel, meg mindig jonak latom ujabb 80-200% rallyra.

Nos, Transocean ( RIG ) ugyanolyan helyzetben van, mint PBR volt fel eve.
A chart hasonlo forma, lasd kesobb. A fundamentalis helyzet hasonlo, borzalmas helyzet van, am, ujabban apro javulasok latszanak. Az investor-erzelmi allapot hasonlo: melyen pesszimista es negativ.

ES a varhato rally hasonloan nagy lesz. Mekkora? Ket eves tavlatban +300%, 1 eves tavlatban +100% a becslesem.

link

Kizarolag kalandor invesztoroknak ajanlom a tovabbi olvasast.

2)RIG iszonyatosan le van verve. Most 10 USD aron van, ennyi 23 eve, 1993 tajan volt utoljara. A value-investor szamara meses alkalom. A 2008 evi arcsucs ota a zuhanas tobb mint -90% volt (!). Es ugy latom, mostanaban vege a medve piacnak, induloban az uj bull. Evekig fog tartani.

3)Fundamentalisan az olaj arzuhanas miatt elkepesztoen nagyot esett az uj furasi megrendelesek mennyisege. Gyakorlatilag egy eve nincs uj megrendeles. Igaz, meg mindig van 2-3 evre valo regebbi megrendeles, hogy a ceg nem zuhan vesztesegbe meg 1 evig se. De nagyon kell sporolni es szoritani le a koltsegeket ahhoz, hogy egyensulyban maradjon es ne legyen veszteseges. RIG ebben kivaloan teljesit.

Rengeteg cikk van RIG fundamentumokrol, nem masolom ide, barhol elolvashatoak.
Megis: A tengeri olajfurok kozott RIG a legerosebb es legnagyobb ceg. A merlege az osszes kozott a legerosebb. Ha csak egyetlen ocean-olajfuro tuleli a valsagot, az RIG lesz.

4)TA alapont RIG 1-2 hullamokat csinalt a januari 8.0 USD szintu melypont ota. Hosszu tavon a medve piac befejezodott, egy W-X-Y korrekcio sorozat utan vagyunk, es fel eve nincs uj melypont. Basist epit, 1-2 hullamoknak nez ki.

link

Jo jol szamolom, akkor most az elso (iii) hullam indult el, 2-3 napja felfele. Sok ilyen lesz meg a kovetkezo 3-5 evben.

Reszemrol napokon belul az eddigi poziciot duplazom. Az elso target 20-22 sav 1 even belul. A masodik target 38-42 sav, 2 even belul.
Kizarolag kalandor invesztornak ajanlom, hogy nezze meg RIG-et.
pomperj 2016. 09. 08. 19:48
Előzmény: #3692  gykiss99
#3694
Szerintem USD erosodes megindult, es a lenyeget ugyanugy latom.

link

****nem kizart a narancs (E), de kevesse valoszinu. Ha leszakad a kek vonal, 1.11 -nel, onnan mar egyertelmu az irany es trend******

2)A US bond futures ma ujra leszakadt, es talan hatarozottabb. Marad az 1.61 target.... az boven eleg az USd jelentos erosodeshez.
link

A nemet Bund is kezd furan viselkedni. Csapkod.
magellan2214 2016. 09. 08. 17:36
Előzmény: #3691  pomperj
#3693
Szia János,
Világbank kobocsátott 3 éves /0.49%kamat /kotveneket 0.5 mld SDR-ban Kinában.Tette ezt eloszor 35 év ota USA-n kivul.Nem nagy osszeg,de szerinted ez mit jelent?
gykiss99 2016. 09. 08. 09:49
Előzmény: #3691  pomperj
#3692
Pomperj, USD nem erősödik (JPY, EUR, AUD-vel szemben), bár az USB 171 alá fordult. Van meglátásod erre?
pomperj 2016. 09. 08. 08:58
Előzmény: #3688  pomperj
#3691
Nem szoktam nezni az EU indexeket, es ma meglepodtem.
Nem a DAX-on, ott Aug-ban (v) volt a 10800 korul, bar meg egy ujabb csucsot uthet. CAC meg plane.
A periferiak erdekesebbek.

A spanyol es olasz indexben egesz szep 10-40% rally lehetoseget latok, eleg meglepo. Raadasul ami mintha elindult volna juliusban.

link
A spanyolnal a deviza-torzitas miatt is, mar februar ota egy w-x-y=(2) formalodas is lehetseges.

link
Az olasz julius ota a-b-c, es most (iii of c) lehet?

Figyeli valaki oket, es mi a velemeny roluk?
pomperj 2016. 09. 07. 21:19
Előzmény: #3689  Cipolla22
#3690
Columbia temaban nem mertem volna ilyen nyiltan leirni a marihuana business legalizalasabol, es orvosi hasznalatbol fakado orias potencialt, de hat Jim megtette ;-)
Cipolla22 2016. 09. 07. 19:15
Előzmény: #3688  pomperj
#3689
Tetszik ez az interjú, azon mondjuk meglepődtem, hogy szerinte az olaj új aljat fog ütni.
- CAS-t mindenesetre felvettem a figyelőlistára
- Kolumbia és a kazahok is érdekesek lehetnek, lássuk
pomperj 2016. 09. 07. 16:58
Előzmény: #3686  Tibi0002
#3688
Bamasolom a Barrons mai interjut a legendas Jim Rogers-el, sokan emlekezhetnek ra, a 70-es evekben Sorossal alapitotta a Quantum Fund-ot. Aztan korbeutazta a vilagot.

Van benne jopar idea; persze, nekem azert is tetszik, mert egyik-masik hasonlit arra, amit gondolok.
++++++++++++
Barron’s Asia: So what’s your big picture view of global markets?

Jim Rogers: People tend to think stock markets are fine because the U.S. averages are okay but the S&P500 is up only because of a few stocks- twice as many stocks on the NYSE are down as those that are up. Amazon ( AMZN ) continues to soar but most things in the world are down. It makes me worried. What seems to be happening now is the U.S. is the only place where you can earn interest or dividends so more and more money is flowing into the U.S. and crowding into a few stocks.
I own a lot U.S. dollars and I’m short U.S. stocks. The dollar continues to be strong and it looks like it’s going to go higher and higher. It’s good for me because I own dollars but it’s causing more distortions in the world. People flee into the dollar to earn returns and to seek a safe haven. It has been a safe haven historically but won’t be in the future because it’s going to get overpriced and might even turn into a bubble depending on how chaotic things get in the rest of the world. Also, the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in history. But given few choices at the moment, people buy into dollars. If it turns into a bubble, I hope I’m smart enough to sell my dollars at that point.
Q: What could shake confidence in the U.S. dollar? Could a victory by Trump in November sap the greenback’s strength?
A: Well, if Donald Trump blows up Mexico or goes to war with China then it would scare people. But even then people are going to think America is going to blow up the world so they would buy more dollars. If Trump wins and he does what he says he’s going to do such as wage trade wars then it’s going to be bad news for all of us. Trade wars have led to bankruptcy and bankruptcy has often led to war. At that point, you’d better own a lot of gold.
Q: So you’re no fan of Trump. How do you rate Hillary Clinton?
A: With all due respect, Hillary Clinton doesn’t have a clue. The only difference between Clinton and Trump is it’s going to take Clinton longer to force us all into bankruptcy. What happened in the Middle East under Hillary Clinton was a total disaster for America and what will happen under Hillary Clinton as president will be even more of a disaster. Perhaps the only worse disaster for America is Donald Trump. It’s one of the few times in history where both candidates running for the presidency of a major country are disliked by everybody. I’m not going to vote for either of them.
Q: How concerned are you about the dislocations in the global economy and the evolution of more sharply divided and populist politics?
A: There are a lot of similarities to the late 20s, where there were strange politicians saying strange things and coming to power with strange ideas. At the same time, you have financial dislocations left over from previous financial dislocations. In the late 20s, a lot of money flowed into the U.S. because that’s where you could earn interest. The Federal Reserve raised rates and America drew more money and it led to a huge stock market bubble that collapsed and you may know the rest of the story: we had a depression and we had war. And I see some of the same kinds of personalities and some of the same financial dislocations. In 1927, the U.S. economy peaked but stocks kept going higher while the rest of the world was coming down because of these artificial flows of money. I don’t want to paint too sharp a picture here but the same thing may be happening, and if it is, think about buying a farm in New Zealand or Australia.
Q: Gold is up 30% since the beginning of the year. You’ve been a long time bull but are you still buying?
A: I own gold but I haven’t been buying. The commitment of traders shows that gold speculators own more gold than they ever have in history. I don’t want to be buying gold because this has always been a contrarian indicator. But if gold goes back down, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot more gold. Before this is over, gold is going to go through the roof and could turn into its own bubble – more and more people will lose confidence in governments and currencies and when that happens, they always turn to gold. I’d like for my children to have my gold someday but if a bubble takes shape – everybody owns gold and is regularly buying more – then I’ll have to sell and put my money into something else.
Q: What other commodities are you bullish on?
A: I’m optimistic about agriculture. Sugar, rice – just list the agricultural commodities that are down and I’m interested. I have some exotic metals but as far as the commodities themselves go, they aren’t liquid. I own a little uranium stock. I’m also a director at Crusader Resources ( CAS.AU ). It’s an Australian mining company that’s recently found lithium so it’s now a triple play on iron ore, gold and lithium. I have a lot of options in Crusader. Electric vehicles will need my lithium. I’m also invested in graphene through Mason Graphite ( LLG.CA ) in Canada. Graphene was discovered about 10 years ago and it’s incredibly light but stronger than steel.
Q: You started looking at Russia three years ago after having been pessimistic about the unloved market for almost five decades. What have you been buying?
A: I own Aeroflot (AFLT.RU) and Moscow Exchange (MOEX.RU). I also own PhosAgro (PHOR.RU), which is a very large fertilizer company – I’m optimistic about agriculture and I’m optimistic about Russia so it was the perfect combination. All three have been making all-time highs – a shocking statement even to someone who owns the stocks – but I plan to hold onto them because I bought them for almost nothing and Russia can only get better. Unfortunately, Russia and China are being pushed together, which is great for them but not good for America and Europe.
I also own Russian government bonds in rubles and I plan to buy more when they go down again. They have very high yields and are a double play on the ruble and Russian interest rates. The ruble will go down with oil but when oil makes its bottom, the ruble will go higher. Oil is having its dead cat bounce and it will go back to test the lows – that’s usually what happens. My view is the lows will hold – maybe $24 a barrel, maybe $32 a barrel – and at that point, the ruble will make its bottom and Russian interest rates will undoubtedly be making their tops. Russian government bonds in rubles may be one of the best buys right now.
Q: So where is the next Russia?
A: Kazakhstan. It’s also a former Soviet country that’s affected by oil. It’s realized that it can’t play by the old rules anymore. Foreign investors are now subject to English law so it’s a place where good things are happening. Nigeria is the same thing - another oil depressed country. I opened an account in Nigeria last year but haven’t bought anything yet. Colombia’s had a horrible civil war for a long time but there’s now a ceasefire. Marijuana is becoming legal in more countries around the world, for medicinal purposes and also recreationally, so I’ve invested in a marijuana company in Colombia. Colombia has the perfect climate, soil and rain for growing the plant. If the medicinal studies about marijuana are right then it’s going to change everything.
Q: You’ve said China will be the most important nation of the 21st Century. What’s your view on China’s slowdown and its ability to handle challenges like overcapacity?
A: I own Chinese shares and my children speak Mandarin – they’re not going to stop speaking Mandarin if China starts having economic problems. There will be problems in parts of the Chinese economy. The manufacturing sector isn’t going to be in such great shape, especially exporters and companies with lots of debt. But there are also industries that will do well no matter what happens in the wider economy. China is spending so much money to clean up pollution that environmental protection will continue to do very well. Health care is another because China needs more health care and it needs better health care. China has also invested a lot of money into One Belt, One Road and may have the best railway technology in the world. Then there’s agriculture. Beijing is doing a lot of things to help farmers in the country side and has directed banks to give loans to the agricultural sector but to cut back on loans for property in cities. I own stocks in all of these areas. Sure, parts of the Chinese economy will go bankrupt and it will shock and scare the socks off people. The headlines will be that China’s collapsing, but underneath, there will be companies that will do very well. A key to successful investing is to own recession resistant stocks that do well in a bear market – that’s how you make a lot of money coming out the other side.
China’s going to have problems, which doesn’t really surprise me, but my kids aren’t going to start learning Danish when we see problems in China because China is going to come out the other side as the most important country of the 21st century. America, which became the most successful country in the 20th century, has lived through depressions and a horrible civil war. Every individual, company or country that rises has problems along the way – that’s how the world works.
Q: You’re also upbeat about the Chinese travel industry. Why?
A: One of the great growth industries of our time is going to be Chinese tourism because the Chinese have not been able to travel for decades, but now it’s easy to get a passport and it’s easy to take out money to put towards your travel. There are 1.4 billion Chinese who want to see their country and the world. I remember living in New York in the 80s and we all said “where did all these Japanese come from?” There are 10 times as many Chinese as there are Japanese. So I own Chinese airline stocks. I own most of them except the budget airlines: Air China ( 753.HK ), China Southern ( 1055.HK ), China Eastern ( 670.HK ), and Hainan Airlines (900945.CN).
Q: How would a weaker renminbi affect Chinese tourism?
A: The renminbi will continue to fall. Not for any special reasons but simply because the U.S. dollar is going up. The dollar is so strong that everything else will look bad compared to it. Plus, the renminbi has been the strongest currency since 2005 – it went up every year until 2014. Anything that goes up for such a long time usually has a correction. But remember, if the renminbi goes down, China becomes more attractive for foreign visitors and the Chinese who can no longer afford to fly to Paris will go to Xi’an or Xiamen instead.
bgyu 2016. 09. 07. 16:25
Előzmény: #3686  Tibi0002
#3687
Így a dollár erősödése is.
Tibi0002 2016. 09. 07. 15:51
Előzmény: #3683  pomperj
#3686
A kötvénypiaci eresztés viszont egyelőre megállt.
kozi723
kozi723 2016. 09. 07. 15:46
Előzmény: #3683  pomperj
#3685
Hasonlo kepnek orulnek en is. 6-8-10%os olaj emelkedes utan dobok mindent es kiulok a partvonalra. Visoznt ennyit meg erzek benne. 48-49 kozott a kovetkezo 1 hetben, remelem ennyi szerencsem lesz meg :)
eurocent 2016. 09. 07. 13:16
Előzmény: #3683  pomperj
#3684
Jelenleg WTI chart feszültségmentes, egy szűk sávban bármerre mehet.
Most azt látom, hogy 46,3-47,5/48,4 egy elég erős ellenállási szint. Ennek áttörése jövő héten elképzelhető. Ugyanakkor lefele is van mozgástér 44-42/41. Ezen szintek áttörése fogja megadni az irányt az elkövetkező hónapokra.
Továbbra is úgy gondolom, hogy USD index pár hónapos időtávon esni fog 91.x-89,x szintig. Legkésőbb 2017 februárban viszont jöhet a fordulat. Rövid távon egy felszúrást 98,3-ig elképzelhető. Ha USD gyengül, akkor az nagy valószínűséggel tolni fogja fel a commodity szektort.
Az előbbiek alapján azt tartom valószínűnek, hogy szeptemberben nem emel kamatot a FED, kivárják az elnökválasztás eredményét és ettől függően lépnek decemberben.
pomperj 2016. 09. 07. 11:13
Előzmény: #3678  kozi723
#3683
Szerintem ezen az WTI charton jol mutatna egy 10 napos rally

link

A szamozassal vigyazz. Egyelore egy korrekcios szamozas van.

Csakhogy; az a "piros kis a" hullam, az meredekebb, mint az eddigi barmelyik rally. Es ha ez a meredekseg nem veletlen, hanem az a jovo eloszele,
akkor (a) helyett oda (1 of 3) kell keruljon... es akkor at kell szamoznod, annak minden kovetkezmenyevel;-)

bgyu 2016. 09. 07. 11:11
Előzmény: #3681  pomperj
#3682
Usd-t most hogy látod Eur-val, Jpy-vel szemben? Még mindig bull?
pomperj 2016. 09. 07. 10:50
Előzmény: #3671  pomperj
#3681
A legfontosabb kerdes most az, vajon meddig megy meg a reszvenyeknel a bull roham?

1)Az SPY most 2 honapja van egy 1.5% meretu savban, es semmi biztos jelt nem ad.
link

Ha megis megszamozzuk a Brexit rallyt jun 27, a kezdete ota, akkor Aug.23 lehetett a (3), es azota a (4) flag forma is kesz, es kovetkezhet egy (5)felfele....

de az egesz tulajdonkappen napi rezgeseken alapulo, eleg bizonytalan mozgasra epul.

2)Ha az Azsia Indexet vizsgaljuk ugyanebbol a celbol, akkor a kep kicsit mas, de tisztabbnak latszik. AZ EEMA chart ugyanaz, mint itt az AAXJ.

link

A szamozas tisztabb sokkal. Most egy (C) hullamban emelkedik. Aminek tegnapelott volt keszen a (4) korrekcioja. Es most (5 of C) indult el nagy lendulettel fel.

Ha feltetelezzuk, hogy W5 egyenlo hosszu lesz W1-el (ez szokasos meretarany ), akkor meg van +5% koruli varakozasunk a top elereseig.

De mar nincs nagyon messze. A jo hir, hogy meg emelkedes van, es meg tarthat 8-10 napig, mint junius vegen (1) tartott. A charton kiemeltem.
A rossz hir az, hogy a bullnak vege kozeledik 2 hetes tavlatban. Szoval, a nyereseg szep, es hamarosan erdemes a stoploss allasokat eszerint beallitani a long poziciokhoz.

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