The decline from 1.2508 looks impulsive, suggesting EURUSD will visit lower levels. First, based on the pattern and the oversold momentum condition, allow for a rebound to the 1.2440/60 area. Afterward another leg down should take place. If it serves to complete a correction setback the bottom should form above 1.2358. -- Jim
EURUSD has pulled back but the setback is not clearly corrective. A correction should end after three waves and above 1.2358, possibly near the 61.8% retracement target at 1.2415.
If EURUSD falls to a new low downside potential might prove limited before the next rally attempt starts. The alternate count suggests it would represent a fifth wave and momentum would likely dip into oversold territory. The new low would only prove 1.2358 is not the end of the decline from May (see video). It would not change the idea that the decline is nearing an end. -- Jim
Annyit tennék csak hozzá, hogy a Pivot alapján egyre nő az új/dupla alj esélye. 1,2462 (heti pivot) alatti napos gyertya zárás 1,2347 (heti pivot támasz)környékére mutat.
Először lássuk mit kezd a 61,8-as fibóval! Hamarosan újra frissít az EWT is.
As is the case elsewhere, the euro recovery from the low establish Friday is not clearly impulsive. Given the outlook for a turn higher based on the pattern at higher degree a setback that ends after three waves and above 1.2358 might be enough to consider a bullish outlook.
Based on the current high on the day the Fibonacci target area for a corrective low lies in the 1.2415/45 area. -- Jim
Earlier: It has been a relatively quiet morning session thus far. And so we are still waiting for an impulsive climb through 1.277 and on toward an initial upside target area at 1.2692-1.2770 to better indicate that a wave '2' correction is now under way from 1.2358. Again, until/unless an impulsive advance is seen the 1.2358 bottom will remain vulnerable to another test by an alternate still developing wave '1' pattern. John Hunter
Previously: The price action still appears supportive and more upside testing is anticipated toward the 1.2540-77 area soon. However, an impulsive rise toward the 1.27 area still needed to improve confidence in our bullish view against a proposed wave '1' bottom at 1.2358. For without an impulsive rise, an alternate still bearish count will remain
The price action still appears supportive and more upside testing is anticipated toward the 1.2540-77 area soon. However, an impulsive rise toward the 1.27 area still needed to improve confidence in our bullish view against a proposed wave '1' bottom at 1.2358. For without an impulsive rise, an alternate still bearish count will remain a potential threat.
Good morning. We continue to look for better evidence which would help to confirm that a significant wave '1' bottom is in place at 1.2358. A clear impulsive five wave rise back above a projected resistance level at 1.2692 would provide such evidence. Thus far, the shape of the rise from 1.2358 is debatable and potentially corrective. And this keeps the 1.2358 bottom vulnerable to another test by an alternate still developing wave '1' pattern. John Hunter
Previously: Prices in EURUSD are consolidating after the rise from the 1.2368 low. The internal wave structure is unclear at the moment. Declines should remain corrective in 3-waves down and remain above 1.2368 until we create a clear 5-wave advance. Once we can count 5-waves up as complete the upside would become limited before the risk of a larger 3-wave setback sets in. There is a light economic calendar in Europe with no high-impact news events slated until tomorrow evening at 7:30 pm ET; AUD Business Confidence Survey. John Hunter is back after a few day's off and will continue our coverage in the European session. Have a great night. Jack Martin
Earlier: A quiet start to the week's trading keeps the bullish wave count on track. Declines should remain corrective in 3-waves down and remain above the 1.2368 low until we create a clear 5-wave rise. An advance through the high of the previous fourth wave at 1.2577 would be good evidence a lasting low was in place. As before, we want to see an impulsive advance before calling the low in place. The subsequent corrective recovery would offer the next bullish opportunity. Jack Martin
EURUSD is at its most important point since the peak established in May. The decline from that high is in five waves. The fifth wave has extended below 1.2500 and the 1.2395 target, where it traveled the same distance as wave one. The fifth wave has not been confirmed by momentum which is typical. It has also been accompanied by extreme bearish sentiment. The Daily Sentiment Index (courtesy of trade-futures.com) is in single digits. It's difficult to identify a euro bull. This lopsided bearish sentiment is extending to the popular press. The cover of The Economist magazine shown below suggests there's no hope for Europe and, therefore, the euro.
The impulsive decline confirms the trend change, from bullish to bearish, that occurred in May. It's just the first or two or more such decline sequences. But the impulsive decline also sets the stage for the largest euro recovery since May. The extreme sentiment condition warns the turn is due. From 1.2358 or not much lower EURUSD should start higher in a recovery that ends after three waves and beneath 1.3993. The area of the fourth wave of one lesser degree to 1.2886 might act as resistance. Based on the current low the Fibonacci retracement targets lie at 1.2982 and 1.3386. These will be adjusted if EURUSD dips beneath 1.2358.
A rally in five waves at small degree would signal the turn higher might have occurred. Watch your 15 or 30 minute chart in an attempt to identify the turn. The subsequent corrective setback will offer a low-risk bullish opportunity.
The dip beneath 1.2500 satisfied the minimum expectations for completion of a trend defining 5-wave decline from July. This impulsive decline confirms the overall bearish view. It also warns the largest corrective recovery since July is due. The 1.2885 area might offer resistance, though the correction is likely to seek higher levels through the end of the year.
The bearish triangle underway since October 2008 can be counted complete, finishing with an ending diagonal and within a penny of the target for wave ((E)) at 1.3935. The thrust from the triangle should extend beneath 1.1876, and could match the 37 cent decline in wave a.
After considering what the "other shoe" might look like an alternate count has been added to the chart. A bullish triangle may have ended at 1.2755 or might end after a final setback in wave e.
Based on price patterns in related pairs, especially USDCHF, we favor the bearish triangle.
The dividing line between the bearish and bullish triangle counts rests at 1.4939, though 1.3700 should act as a ceiling.
Draghi és az ECB-n belüli legújabb összhang ("néhány napja nagyon hasznos vacsorát folytattam a Kormányzótanács tagjaival") alapján én nem várnék túl nagy dollárgyengülést. Az könnyen lehetséges h. lesz még valamekkora erőgyűjtési szakasz mielőtt ismét megpróbálkozik a trendvonal felfelé törésével:
A chart szerint a dollárral szemben még van további tér a frank gyengülése előtt, míg az EUR-al szemben ez a lehetőség a 2011-es fixálás óta erősen korlátozottnak tűnik.
Relatív gazdasági és pénzügyi erejét tekintve Svájc tulajdonképpen egy magas gránithegy tetején épített bástyaként fogható fel a körülötte elterülő euróövezeti országokhoz képest.
USDX-nél középtávon most szerintem a '85 óta behúzott hosszútávú lokális csúcsokra húzott trendvonal körüli mozgás lehet érdekes. Ha dinamikusan törné felfelé, akkor EURUSD tekintetben 1-2 éves távon a paritás sem volna elképzelhetetlen.
You are missing out if you are just looking at the USDX without looking at the individual dollar pairs
By Jim Martens, Senior Currency Strategist
Fri, 27 Sep 2013 18:00:00 ET
The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six other major currencies, which are:
1. Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
2. Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
3. Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
4. Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
5. Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
6. Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
Now, a question. If you are bearish (or bullish) on the Dollar Index, does it mean you are expecting the dollar to fall (or rise) relative to all its forex competitors? The answer is no.
We must keep in mind that the USDX is trade-weighted, and its trend alone might not reflect the USD's true performance.
In other words, just looking at the USDX without looking at individual dollar pairs might not accurately reflect all of the available forex opportunities. Let’s look at a fresh example.
On Friday (Sept. 27), the USDX turned lower (as we expected). Yet the U.S. dollar has not fallen against every currency. Not even against every USDX component.
We have been expecting USD weakness relative to EUR, GBP and CHF. They account for 70%+ of the Index.
At the same time, we have been bullish on the USD relative to these two USDX components: JPY and CAD. However, they account for just a bit over 20%.
Indeed, the USD has been weaker relative to the euro, sterling and Swiss franc. It's the weighting of those three USDX components that has kept the Index under pressure. But the dollar has not fallen against all currencies on Friday. It gained relative to the commodity currencies -- the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar -- and has held its own relative to the Japanese yen.
So, the U.S. Dollar Index weakness does not mean the U.S. dollar weakness across the board.
It's this mixed performance that makes it imperative to extend our market study beyond the Dollar Index.
That's why we look at the Elliott wave patterns developing in each of the 11 forex pairs we cover in our Currency Specialty Service independently.
Törölt felhasználó2014. 11. 08. 14:13
#1126
Áthozom néhány hsz-emet az Arany-Ezüst topikból, végül is itt jobb helyen vannak:
EURUSD is higher and has ruled out a bearish triangle. That's another step along the way to signaling a bullish reversal has occurred. A rally in five waves would send the strongest signal a reversal has occurred and, even then, I'd wait for a corrective setback before committing to the market. By waiting the risk associated with a bullish view is reduced and we would know exactly where the count is proved wrong.
hát sajna nem dőlt el semmi... lehet csak false breakout lesz belőle. Akkor viszont az eddigi 1.23567-es aljról húzott 'kis fibó' szerint jöhetünk vissza akár újabb aljra a puszi nélkül hagyott nagyobbik fibóig (1.2351)
Erste certi volt. Az 1.25os kiutodott a kovetkezo 1.225nel ko-s. Igy iteltem meg hogy a duplaaljbol elindul es meg is volt a felso cel 1.2440nel bar azt mar nem vartam meg. 49es atlaggal vettem 59essel adtam el. A para csak az ezeknel hogy reggel 9tol du 5ig fersz hozza... Meglatjuk hogyan tovabb, abban biztos vagyok hogy feljebb megyunk meg, konzervativan rajzolas nelkul mondjuk az 1.236-1.244 261,8%ra. Azt gondolom kozben az expanded flatben kiegyezhetunk? Szoval 1.3 vagy afolotti csucsokat mar nem varok, de mindenkeppen 1.288 alattit.
Most olvastam csak vegig, expanded flat akkor pipa. Viszont szerintem a duplaalj megvolt, mar tegnap ejjel csinalt egyet 1.2365on es oda estunk ma a nap folyaman.
EUR/USD