PORTFOLIO FORUM

Az kemény, mekkora tőkeáttétellel nyomtad?

Nekem mindig gyanús, amikor a piacmozgató hírek által torzul az alakzat. Egyelőre nálam sanszos, hogy a tegnapi aljtól kezdve korrektív az emelkedés szerkezete (expanded flat, épülő "c" ággal), úgy hogy egyelőre számítok még legalább egy duplaaljra.

Törölt felhasználó 2014. 11. 07. 18:59

Előzmény: #1117 szarvasvadasz

#1119

"...If a triangle is unfolding EURUSD will consolidate beneath the 1.2441 recovery high, mostly at lower levels, before it stages a thrust below 1.2358. That new low might complete the 5-wave decline shown."

Ők is látják h. az 1.2351-es fibó érintése nélkül kezdte meg a felmenetet, ezért nyitva hagynak ehhez is egy kiskaput. Teljesen jogos, rendben van ez így.

Ennek a csapatnak a karaktere 100%-ban beleillik a korábban vázolt 'óvatos duhaj' féle elemzők halmazába.

tberki 2014. 11. 07. 18:31

Előzmény: #1116 szarvasvadasz

#1118

20%ot hozott 😊
Viszont erdekes volt hogy utana jott egy korrekcio 1.2414ig ha hol lattam, igy elne a 1.26koruli csucsra futo 5 subhullam ha jol ertem. Te mit gondolsz? Varnal Meg uj aljat?

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 07. 18:24

Előzmény: #1113 szarvasvadasz

#1117

EU: frissítés az EWI-től:

link

EURUSD did recover to and test resistance in the 1.2440 as expected. What happens from here is critical. I mentioned the possibility wave ((4)) is still underway and taking the form of a bearish triangle. The recovery stopped where it needed to keep that option open. The recovery from the low is not clearly impulsive. Another reason to at least consider the triangle scenario.

If a triangle is unfolding EURUSD will consolidate beneath the 1.2441 recovery high, mostly at lower levels, before it stages a thrust below 1.2358. That new low might complete the 5-wave decline shown.

Notice the common thread. EURUSD has either bottomed or will bottom not much below 1.2358. It appears downside potential appears limited. -- Jim

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 07. 18:23

Előzmény: #1115 tberki

#1116

Gratulálok, minden nyerőnek örülni kell.

tberki 2014. 11. 07. 16:15

Előzmény: #1113 szarvasvadasz

#1115

nos ma sikerult megvenni az 1.2370-1.2435öt. Szep volt, de most nekem partvonal ameg rendezodnek a sorok (+nem akarok pozicioban lenni a hetvegere)

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 07. 15:54

Előzmény: #1113 szarvasvadasz

#1114

Hivatkozott "Market Insight" hozzá:

link

The news is out and the market has had time to digest it. The immediate reaction was to sell dollar across the board. The buck has recouped some but not all of its losses. Is this the start of the anticipated turn lower?

The structure visible on the chart of the Dollar Index allows dollar bears to lower resistance from the 88.17 high to 88.10. It's not a huge adjustment, but it's what the market allows.

The slide from 88.17 is in three waves - so far. If it extends to five waves the bearish view will gain traction and a corrective recovery would present an opportunity, especially if the same pattern is visible in other pairs such as EURUSD and USDCHF. -- Jim

Earlier: The larger degree chart send the most important message. It shows a possible 5-wave advance from May that warns the rally is mature. The momentum divergence accompanying the fifth wave is typical and warns the rally has carried too far, too fast. Thursday I mentioned DSI and showed a recent cover of The Economist magazine. Both the reading (DSI) and the cover suggest bearish sentiment is extreme. After the euro plunge Thursday following comments by ECB President Mario Drahgi euro sellers are likely already positioned for what was described on the tube as a "sure thing" short trade.

Given the opportunity, the market will inflict maximum damage when the opportunity is available. Our work and the sentiment backdrop suggests that opportunity exists. All we need is evidence the dollar has turned lower and the euro higher. A 5-wave decline at small degree would signal the Dollar Index had turned. It's trading near its highs, making it premature to make that call. But we recognize the potential for a market surprise.

Perhaps the employment numbers out of the U.S. and Canada due at the bottom of the hour will miss their targets. We'll see. We can't guess on the numbers. But we can say that dollar reversal should not come as a surprise. It's a matter of when, not if.

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 07. 15:51

Előzmény: #1109 szarvasvadasz

#1113

EU: frissítés az EWI-től:

link

Today's price action is testing the idea an ending diagonal is unfolding. While I review the charts it does appear a 5-wave decline might have unfolded from 1.2577. I say might have unfolded because it's possible wave ((4)) is taking the form of a triangle and a new low in wave ((5)) will be established. Nonetheless, the message is that EURUSD is nearing a bottom.

A correction should reach the 1.2440 area but could extend to the 1.2577 area. As discussed in the Market Insight, a case can be made that a significant low lies nearby and a sizable recovery is due to start.

Watch the short term chart for a rally in five waves. It would signal EURUSD might have bottomed and turned higher.

-bubu- 2014. 11. 07. 15:20

Előzmény: #1111 szarvasvadasz

#1112

minden tisztelet Feléd, hogy segítően állsz a tréderek mellé

előre is köszönöm a többiek nevében is akiket érdekel a téma

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 07. 15:11

Előzmény: #1110 -bubu-

#1111

Persze, hamarosan visszaáll részemről a "rend".

Az EWI-t azért linkelem a héten, mert:
- egyrészt most ingyenes
- másrészt elég sokat írnak, és aki elolvassa a linkelt képeken folyamatában a kommentárokat, bepillantást nyerhet és megértheti, hogyan is gondolkodik a piacról egy EWT alapon szemlélődő ember, mire figyel, milyen feltételekhez köti, mi alapján feltételezi, hogy pl. elindul egy korrekció vagy folytatódik a trend.

ui.: jelentősen nő a forgalom az aljaknál. Mi lehet az oka? Az okos pénz olcsón akar eladni vagy olcsón akar venni?

-bubu- 2014. 11. 07. 13:54

Előzmény: #1109 szarvasvadasz

#1110

köszi Vadi

elég nyögvenyelős még fölfele ,

hétvégén ha jövőfürkésznél a Tőled megszokott csártokon, azt is megnézném ismét

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 07. 13:50

Előzmény: #1108 szarvasvadasz

#1109

EU: frissítés az EWI-től:

link

Still looking for upcoming corrective strength into or somewhat above 1.2577. Given the still lacking small degree five wave signature to the upside from 1.2364, we still can not say with confidence that projected strength is underway from the 1.2364 low. If not, then our bottom should form over coming hours at not all that much under 1.2364.

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 07. 08:15

Előzmény: #1107 szarvasvadasz

#1108

EU: pár perccel ezelőtti frissítés az EWI-től:

link

Good morning Europe. We are looking for an important bottom to form from which price then launches an upward corrective rise in three waves into or somewhat above the 1.2577 neighborhood. This projected price strength more preferably commences from or not all that much under the 1.2364 current low for the move. Interim support at 1.2370 must remain intact if projected buying pressure is emerging from the 1.2364 low. Price trading up into the 1.2447 area will bolster prospects for assaulting 1.2577. Al Graham for John Hunter

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 07. 08:05

Előzmény: #1102 szarvasvadasz

#1107

EU: kora reggeli értékelés az EWI-től:

link

A consolidation here that remains in 3-waves followed by another five wave decline below 1.2364 would more cleanly complete the larger degree five-wave corrective decline we are seeking from 1.2533. The 1.2429 area is about as deep as we would allow for prices to rise and continue to favor new lows. A rise in 5-waves either before or after new lows above 1.2447 would be good evidence a more lasting low is in place in wave (5). With sharp moves earlier in the week we could see some sideways action until we get closer to the next big news event, US Non-Farm Payrolls released at 8:30 am ET each first Friday of the new month. Al Graham will be in next again tonight for John Hunter through the European session.

Törölt felhasználó 2014. 11. 06. 23:26

Törölt hozzászólás

#1106

Törölt felhasználó 2014. 11. 06. 23:23

Törölt hozzászólás

#1105

Törölt felhasználó 2014. 11. 06. 23:09

Előzmény: törölt hozzászólás

#1104

nincs benne most pozim így céláram sincs reggelre... mellesleg igencsak csodálkoznék ha nem vonzaná be rövidesen a legfőbb napos fibó korr. szint.

link

Törölt felhasználó 2014. 11. 06. 23:04

Előzmény: #1102 szarvasvadasz

#1103

"...A rally in five waves at small degree would signal the turn has occurred. Watch the short-term charts; 15 minute or sixty minute charts."

Na ez használható mankónak tűnik. Thx.

szarvasvadasz 2014. 11. 06. 22:51

Előzmény: #1098 szarvasvadasz

#1102

EU: napos záró értékelés az EWI-től:

link

EURUSD has continued lower, to levels not traded in more than two years, even after dropping below 1.2500 Friday to satisfy minimum expectations for completion of the decline underway since May. The accompanying momentum divergence, a typical fifth wave event, warns the decline is mature. Sentiment is also lopsided. The Daily Sentiment Index (courtesy of trade-futures.com) continues to flirt with single digits, similar to reading prior to the early October low. The latest cover of The Economist magazine is another sign sentiment is at a bearish extreme (see the cover below).

Instead of the brief correction witnessed during the first half of October, a correction of the entire decline from May could last into 2015. It could reach the 1.2886 area, though higher levels seem reasonable. Once the turn occurs we'll calculate the usual Fibonacci retracement levels.

A rally in five waves at small degree would signal the turn has occurred. Watch the short-term charts; 15 minute or sixty minute charts.

The alternate count suggests the overlapping decline to below 1.2500 is wave b of a still unfolding fourth wave. Don't dismiss this count. Wave (iii) lasted three months and shaved 8% off the value of the euro. A time consuming correction, maybe a triangle, would seem a reasonable event. A fifth wave to a new low would follow.

Notice that all of the counts described call for at least a rally attempt starting from not far from current levels. The shape and amplitude of the recovery might clear the air.