https://invst.ly/1ce5xq . Ez a small caps fülescsésze ha kitör felfelé, az minimum érdekes lesz Pár hónap brutális ralli benne lehet, de a small caps mindig az utolsó ami egy bull marketben rallizik Most ha kitörne kb fél vagy egy év amíg mehetne még.
A spanyol jegybankár Luis de Giundos szerint bár jelenleg megfelelő szinten áll az EKB kamata, ennek ellenére minden lehetőséget nyitva kell tartani és készen kell állni a kamatok megváltoztatására, ha a gazdasági környezet megváltozik.
Vonoviához kapcsolódva: kamat ide kamat oda a német ingatlanvásárlás pörög. “Consumers Buy More Real Estate as Interest Rates Climb Published on 09/18/2025 at 12:24 am EDTdpa-AFX - Translated by Marketscreener - See originalHYPOPORT SE+1.97%VONOVIA SE-0.42%SCOUT24 SE-0.14%LEG IMMOBILIEN SE-0.34%FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Rising prices, increased transactions, and bolder buyers: Germany's real estate market is regaining momentum. However, higher mortgage rates are weighing on buyers. Experts anticipate that the four percent mark could soon be reached.The Hamburg-based Gewos Institute for Urban, Regional, and Housing Research expects a significant increase in purchases of apartments, single-family homes, and building land in 2025. "The reluctance to buy in the German real estate market is gradually dissolving, with private buyers in particular returning to the market," writes Gewos real estate expert Sebastian Wunsch."Growing Confidence Among Buyers"Specifically, the institute expects the number of residential property purchases to rise to around 656,000 this year--a jump of more than 14 percent compared to 2024. This is according to a study made available to the German Press Agency, based on an analysis of completed sales contracts.Turnover from single-family homes, condominiums, multi-family buildings, and residential land is projected to climb by 18 percent to around €221 billion, up from approximately €188 billion last year. This shows the real estate market continuing its recovery from the setback that began in 2022, when sharply rising interest rates ended the boom and caused prices to fall.Wunsch notes that potential buyers are increasingly confident in their ability to finance a property. Additionally, some people are turning to homeownership due to high rental prices.At least for single-family homes and existing condominiums, the pre-crisis level of 2021 is expected to be surpassed, according to the forecast. The first half of the year was strong, leading to expectations of a roughly 13 percent increase in purchases for 2025. However, purchases of building land and new-build apartments remain more than 40 percent below pre-crisis levels.Four Percent Mortgage Rates on the Horizon?However, buyers will generally have to cope with rising loan interest rates. According to FMH Financial Consulting, ten-year property loans recently carried an annual rate of about 3.7 percent. Twelve months ago, the rate was just 3.3 percent.FMH founder Max Herbst considers a rise to 4 percent by the end of the year possible. He points out that mortgage rates are not tied to the European Central Bank's lower key interest rates, but rather to the yield on ten-year German government bonds. These could rise further due to economic stagnation and increasing government debt: "It depends on whether investors believe Germany can achieve an economic turnaround, trust the Federal Republic as a debtor, or demand higher risk premiums."Prices Still SubduedSince buyers often finance large sums with loans, even small interest rate increases can become costly. However, Herbst does not believe the real estate market's recovery will end abruptly. "In 2022, mortgage rates rose from one to 3.3 percent in just half a year." Such a rapid increase is not occurring now.Potential buyers also have more options again and are benefiting from slightly lower prices, according to Gewos expert Wunsch. The current price level for existing apartments is still 6 percent below the record set during the last real estate boom, while single-family homes are 7 percent below that peak.”
Ha jól emlékszem Károlynak (régen a Cimballi blogján sűrűn írt haláláig) volt egy olyan megfigyelése (ami irányelvként megállja a helyét), hogy DZZ-eknél a belső korrektív mintáknál is jellemzően megjelenik a váltakozás elve. DXY háromszögek miatt jutott ez eszembe.
3)NDX https://imgur.com/a/u8XCStq . 4)Bonds a US treasury eddig se nyomtatott sok 20-30 eves kotvenyt, az osszesnek mindossze 1.7% resze ilyen futamideju. DE Bessent meg inkabb a rovid, 1 eves treasuryket adja el, mostanaban mar 80% reszaranyban ilyeneket arulnak. Ez lehet jo politika amig a kamatok lefele mennek. De nem vagyok meggyozodve, hogy egy ev mulva a rovid kamatok meg mindig ilyen alacsonyak lesznek, mint amit a piac var. Nagyon ovatos legyen az, aki most Bond portfoliot menedzsel. , Tegnap a US1Y kamat 3.60%ra leszurt, de a US10Y kamat maradt 4.06% szinten. A piac szkeptikusan nezi most a FED kamat csokkentesi kampany beindulasat. Es meg az is megeshet, hogy US10Y folotti futamidoknel elkezdodik egy lassu emelkedes. , 5)Dollar AZ EUR vagy zigzag, vagy dupla zigzag alakzatos szerkezet az utolso 3 evben. Tegnap a paralel csatorna fole szurt, aztan lefordult. A DSI indikator 83, extrem magas, tipikusan innen szokott lefordulni az EURUSD. . https://imgur.com/a/SLUamxP . A tobbi devizaval szemben is hasonlo a helyzet. Meg egy leszuras lehetseges, de a trend vege fele jar. . https://imgur.com/a/0sYUA7B . 6)Gold rovid tavon egy korrekcio indulhat be.
Ajánlom figyelmetekbe a Quantum rèszvènyeket rgti qbts, ionq, arqq, nagyrèszük 40- 50 % rallizott 10-15 nap alatt. Nem vèletlen ès ez mèg csak a kezdet kb 1 ève mèg szinte senki nem foglalkozott v hallott róluk de most már ha nem is úgy mint az AI de egyre inkább előtérbe kerülnek 4-5 èven belül pedig szinte forradalmiak lesznek az áttőrèsek. Persze spekulatív most mèg de van bennük potenciál bőven !
1)SPY daytrade Heves a-b-c alakzatos csapkodas indult a FED bejelentes utan, a high-frekvency algoritmusok egymas kozott nagy harcban alltak. Kozben a valos tradeing nap vegere egy szereny emelkedessel zarult. . https://imgur.com/a/eLEs207 . 2)FED Ahogy elore meguzenteek, 4.00%-4.25% kamatszintre jottek le, es iden meg 2 kamatvagas varhato. Ebben a gazdasag nyilvanvalo lassulasa, a job marketben az uj allasok lecsokkeneses az ok. AZ inflacio kis emelkedeset egyelore az egyeb nagyobb bajok miatt nem veszik figyelembe. . https://imgur.com/a/JOzhv7h . 2)AI tema A mediakban az AI boom tovabb tart, Vezeto bankarok azt talaltak mondani, hogy 5 even bekul 3 napos munkahetre fog a vilag atterni az AI boom hatasa kovetkezteteben. Viszont a vilag energia igenye az AI miatt evi 2.5-3.0%-al fog noni, a robotizalas miatt meg ujabb 3-5%-al kell tobb, plusz a klima melegedes es a datacenter hutes miatt ujabb 1-2%. Bemasolom az ajanlott cegeket: . " Inside a data center, there is cooling technology, including chillers made by the likes of Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls, and Carrier, cooling towers made by SPX Technologies, and liquid rack cooling provided by nVent and Schneider Electric. Networking components come from Arista Networks, Ciena, and Cisco Systems. Servers can come from Dell Technologies and HP Enterprise. Power distribution and management are the domains of Eaton, Vertiv, and Schneider. Back-up power comes from Cummins and CaterpillarCAT+2.27%. And the entire data center can be designed and built by firms like Jacobs Solutions and AECOM. Digital Realty will manage a finished property."
Financial Forecasts
cimu topic folytatasa. Minden fenti temaba vago hozzaszolast szivesen latunk.