Ha ez megindul, akkor nem kell nagyítóval nézni mikor hova kötik le... Ugyanaz a csapat, mint az Autowallis-nál volt - szerintem az eljárás is hasonló lesz. Összerakják a hátteret szépen csendben és akkor állnak elő vele, amikor minden készen áll. Bájos volt olvasni, hogy mi mindent lehetne kisbefektetőként elérni, ha összefogunk, felszólalunk stb. - 80-85%-a a papírnak biztos kezekben van, semmi, de abszolút semmi esély bármilyen érdemi javaslatra. Ezt el kell fogadni és vagy várni, aki benne ül vagy eladni - ez türelemjáték, mindenféle garancia nélkül. De ha elindul, akkor egy nap alatt fog 100 Ft-ot emelkedni, de lehet többet is!
Én úgy néz ki el tudok menni - az elmúlt 3 évben mindig ott voltam a közgyűléseken, plusz néha bementem megnézni a részvénykönyvet is. Ugyanakkor nagy illúzióim nincsenek, hogy mire vagyunk kisbefektetőként képesek... Belibeg egy kiscsaj kosztümben, mint múltkor és nála van a részvények 30%-a! Max kellemetlen kérdéseket lehet feltenni, amit Prutkay unott arccal fog hallgatni és még unottabban valami semmitmondó választ ad rá. Ilyen téren nekünk nem terem sok babér... Ha van valami tervük és lendületet kap a részvény, akkor max realizálhat mindenki nyerőt ott ahol kifullad a kockázattűrő képessége.
RIG témára reagálva... Nem tisztem védeni a részvényt, de szerintem nem ennyire sötét a helyzet. Alább egy jó összefoglaló: Transocean: Improving
Liquidity, Deleveraging, And Potential ProfitabilitySummary
Strengthening
the balance sheet is a top priority for the company.
Deleveraging
efforts have restored value to equity holders.
The
company has completed key transactions to improve liquidity and refinance
debt.
The stock
is trading near 52-week lows.
Oil is far
too cheap, given the current situation in the Middle East.
Jeremy Poland
Transocean (NYSE:RIG) stock
price has been really struggling in the last couple of months. Despite the Red
Sea crisis, oil prices have not exceeded the $100 mark. Brent is just in the
$80s as I am writing this. The recent fleet status report and the quarterly earnings results disappointed the
market, although these were not all bad news. So, RIG's stock is trading near
52-week lows. In this article, I will discuss the upside factors, RIG's
valuations, and any key risks surrounding the company.
My previous article
In my previous article, I explained the debt exchange
announcement and also commented on the recent quarterly earnings results. I
explained why the results were not all bad news: the fact that Transocean's
clients were willing to pay a premium on the company's services relative to
peers, the high utilization ratios, and more possible contract
announcements. The debt exchange organized by Transocean did not only lead to
share dilution but also to improved financials, including the company's better
cash position. But let us go to bears' key arguments.
Bears' key arguments
Amongst the key arguments that most Transocean bears
mention are the following:
Challenges
with profitability
It has been mentioned many times by different authors
here on Seeking Alpha that the recent quarterly earnings were not quite
impressive. This would in turn threaten Transocean's 2024 profitability. But
this is not true.
Seeking Alpha
In fact, most analysts expect Transocean to earn $0.22
per share in 2024. Indeed, it does not sound like too much money. But it is
really good for a company that has been recording negative earnings for a
while.
Data
by YCharts
Moreover, earnings are expected to rise further.
Too much
debt
Another argument mentioned by many bears is that
Transocean has a heavy debt load. I would not argue with that. But the most
important thing is that RIG's debt is manageable.
The management has substantially improved the company's liquidity profile. For example, the revolving
credit facility was extended to mid-2025. Certain bonds were exchanged as well.
Four secured notes with improved amortization worth $1.175 billion were
refinanced. $25 million of 2.5% senior guaranteed exchangeable bonds due 2027
were converted into RIG shares. I wrote about Transocean's debt exchange in my other article.
$101 million of the outstanding 2025 and 2029 exchangeable bonds have also been
equitized. And the management expects to decrease the debt to approximately $3
billion. The cashflow-producing ability of the company's current fleet supports
long-term company debt of about $4 - $4.5 billion. The stacked rigs are
obviously not taken into account. So, if the debt is lower than that, the extra
cash flows can easily be shared with the company's shareholders. Moreover, a
fleet of 25 - 30 ultradeepwater rigs requires a breakeven average day rate of
$275000 - $300000. Free cash above this level could be used to repay debt.
Even if the company finds it hard to pay interest on
its debt (it may only happen in a few years' time; it is highly unlikely to
happen in 2024), its management has already organized many debt exchanges,
reducing the debt load and the annual interest paid. So, the debt load is well
manageable, given the positive cash flows and the positive net results expected
in 2024. Moreover, the offshore sector's recovery should also make Transocean's
debt sustainable in the years to come.
No rig
reactivations
The question of whether Transocean would reactivate
its cold-stacked rigs often gets asked by analysts attending Transocean's
earnings conferences. RIG's CEO, Jeremy Thigpen, normally says the company
would do so only if it is profitable to do so. Many bears say that it will
never make economic sense to reactivate rigs. In their opinion, this means
Transocean's potential revenue and profit growth is highly limited. Indeed, if
no more rigs get reactivated, then the company will be unable to substantially
increase its backlog. Although Transocean's fleet is the largest in the
industry, its utilization is less than 50%. So, most of the fleet is
cold-stacked. I agree with the bears that if the oil prices and the offshore
sector decline, then there will be no incentive to reactivate the cold-stacked
fleet. But in my view, the company's potential reactivation costs are somewhat
exaggerated. In one of the last earnings conferences, Thigpen named a number
between $75 million and $125 million. Even if the actual costs are somewhat
higher, it will still make economic sense to reactivate rigs if the day rates
for deepwater and ultra-deepwater ships move further upward.
Overvaluation
problem
Another popular bearish argument is RIG stock's
overvaluation. I will compare Transocean's valuations to those of its peers in
the "Valuation" section of this article. However, right now,
Transocean's stock is lingering near 52-week lows.
Data
by YCharts
So, the overvaluation problem seems to be less of an
issue than it used to be at the end of September when the stock was worth
almost $9 per share.
Upside factors
Red Sea
crisis
The Red Sea crisis seems to be largely
underappreciated by the entire oil market. Everyone seems to be concerned with
high levels of oil production in the US and many central banks' rather
restrictive policies. Investors are afraid of oil demand destruction due to
economic conditions. But it is really premature to say that the oil supply is
very secure. For example, it was announced that the US Congress was
demanding that Joe Biden strike Iran after three US soldiers were killed in
Jordan in a drone strike claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a militia
group backed by Iran. The point I am making is that the situation is escalating,
while many market players are simply ignoring this.
Offshore
drilling market's recovery
Most authors and analysts admit the offshore market is
recovering at a fast pace. For example, even the Bank of America predicts
the market for offshore drillers is promising much
more upside potential than onshore drillers.
New
contract announcements
New contract announcements can also obviously push
prices upward.
For example, in December, Transocean announced a
minimum 540-day contract for the Transocean Barents with OMV Petrom S.A. in the
Romanian Black Sea at a rate of $465,000 per day, excluding additional
services. The day rate is quite high and proves the offshore sector's recovery.
But more contract awards are likely ahead. Here is what Jeremy Thigpen said during the earnings press
conference:
The company is discussing "follow-on work
for the Deepwater Atlas upon completion of its current contract." The
management is "already having conversations with numerous customers
regarding additional 20-K programs, many of which are not expected to start for
up to three years, once again demonstrating" the "customer’s belief
in a prolonged upcycle. The Invictus is currently competing for multiple local
campaigns, including one that" will most probably "require a high hook load seventh-generation drillships, the
available supply of which is very limited."
In addition, Transocean's CEO expects Brazil, Africa,
the Mediterranean region, and even Australia to provide plenty of contract
opportunities for the company.
Deleveraging
As I have mentioned above, Transocean has been very
creative in retiring its debt. In some cases, it managed to do so without
issuing more shares. Ideally, the management aims to decrease its debt to $3
billion. So, it means the debt will get easy service, the profitability will
rise, and the company might even share some profits with its shareholders
either in dividends or stock buybacks.
Valuations to peers
As I have mentioned before, RIG is not very expensive
compared to its peers. This is particularly obvious if we compare RIG to
Valaris (VAL).
Below, I have inserted diagrams comparing RIG's stock
to those of its peers.
Data
by YCharts
Data
by YCharts
Data
by YCharts
If we look at the company's valuation multiples and
compare those to its peers, we will clearly see that RIG is not profitable now,
unlike other companies in the sector. But in some respects, Transocean's stock
is not much more expensive than its competitors. This is especially true of
Valaris. RIG is much cheaper than VAL in terms of EV/EBITDA, P/S and P/B. In
fact, RIG is cheaper than many of its competitors in terms of P/S due to the
fact that it is not profitable right now. However, this too shall pass. As I
have mentioned above, the company is expected to earn a positive net income as
early as this year.
Seeking Alpha
Indeed, RIG's stock might not be as cheap as some
might want it to be. But it is not particularly overvalued, especially given
its leading position as an offshore driller.
Risks
First of all, Transocean is not a cash cow just yet
and has some debt to manage. Very conservative investors might prefer to stay
away from it and buy companies with an AAA credit rating. But RIG is a very
sound bet on the offshore's recovery. In other words, there are solid gains to
be made. Leveraged companies can appreciate much more than those carrying very
little debt.
Obviously, the extra debt is an additional risk if the
recovery is not as fast as expected. There could be no gains but losses to be
made. This is possible if there is a recession risk. Many countries, most
notably China, are facing an economic slowdown. But central banks usually
intervene when the economic indicators deteriorate significantly. So, it is not
impossible that we will avoid a global recession in the next couple of years.
Moreover, as many Seeking Alpha analysts have mentioned before, offshore drilling
requires long-term investments and reasonably long contract awards. That is why
short-term economic fluctuations will likely have no major impact on the future
of offshore oil.
Another risk is that of an oversupplied oil market. US
onshore drillers seem to ignore the capital discipline and the obvious
interests of their stockholders and produce too much oil and gas. OPEC+
members, however, are rather reluctant to oversupply the oil market. So, it is
likely there will be some sort of balance here.
Conclusion
Transocean is the leading offshore driller. It has the
largest fleet. Although it is a leveraged business, investors can gain a lot,
thanks to the fact that RIG's stock can rise substantially on any piece of good
news. Unlike so-called "blue chip stocks," high-debt companies'
shares can either drop substantially on any bad news or soar on any positive
announcements. The company is expected to turn profitable this year and has no
significant debt maturities in the near future. RIG is a very good bet for investors
betting on offshore oil's recovery. Finally, the stock is not overvalued
compared to peers, especially after the recent price correction
A valós közkéz nincs több 4-5 millió részvénynél! De lehet, hogy annyi sincs... A többi egy bizonyos üzletkörhöz tartozó cégek kezében van, akik egymás között cserélgetik időnként, hogy a forgalom meglegyen. Ez nyilvános adat amúgy, csak egy közgyűlésen bele kell nézni a részvénykönyvbe.
Mindkét mozgóátlag (180 napos 230 Ft, 360 napos 237 Ft) szépen összesimult, tehát ha valamit akarnak lépni (pl. kötelező vételi), akkor ez kedvező kiindulási alap.
Majd beletanulnak a lelkes fiúk is, hogyan megy az Akko-nál :) Amúgy egy érdekes papír, óriási potenciállal, ami nem feltétlenül a Neo eredményéből adódik. Én 3 éve tartom és követem a részvénykönyvet. Szvsz a valós közkéz kb. 15% - azzal megy a ficergés, de a többi biztos kezekben van. Ez akkor fog elindulni, amikor elindítják, nem pedig amikor a kis hazai spekahad megcibálja - azokat max. leveszik egy kis apróra.
Inkább csak örül a piac, hogy se Irán, se Katar, se már komolyabb arab termelő ország egyelőre még nem tett félre nem érthető lépést Izrael ellen. Nyilván szóban elíténi a gázai offenzívát egy dolog, de a szájkarate nem hatja meg a tőzsdét ezek szerint. A szíriai és cisz-jordániai rakétázások meg úgy tűnik nem lépték még túl az ingerküszöböt.
10/27/23: Transocean Insider Shares Traded Number of Shares Bought Past 3 Months: 5,935,188 Number of Shares Sold Past 3 Months: 453,429 Number of Shares Bought Past 12 Months: 124,715,629 Number of Shares Sold Past 12 Months: 3,198,996 Total Shares Traded Past 3 Months: 6,388,617 Total Shares Traded Past 12 Months: 127,914,625 Net Activity Past 3 Months: +5,481,759 Net Activity Past 12 Months: +121,516,633
A reptér üzemeltetését egy cégnek szándékozik kiadni a kormány - a tőkeemelés, amire készült az AKKO pont ilyen mértékű lenne. Ezenkívül pont beleillik a Neo profiljába. Ez nyilván spekuláció, de az is érthető, hogy titokban tartják annak a cégnek a nevét, aki ezt a lehetőséget meg fogja kapni. Az Akko pont ideális jelölt lenne!
Napos grafikonon a 67,105-ről induló 1-es hullám 84,355-nél korrigált és akkor a 77,641-ről induló 3-as hullám valóban mehet 110 fölé akár. Ami szintén fontos, hogy a 2022. márciusi csúcs óta csökkenő trendből is kiléptünk szeptember 12-én!
Hajlanék én is erre a magyarázatra, de ahhoz túl sovány ez a két nap (igazából másfél)... Tegnap 73m, ma pedig 122m... 250 Ft-os átlaggal 800.000 rv, miközben 33.355.200 rv van összesen... Ezzel sokan nem tudtak kimenekülni, az árról nem is beszélve!
