Aki osztalékként részvényt választott annak itt a beszámítási ár:
Bezugspreis: 27,938€
Bezugsverhältnis: 22,9:1

Szerintem ez a beírásid egyértelműsítette, hogy kinek mennyi agysejtje van.

Irán máris tárgyalna a békéről. Na ennyit a te kemény Iránodról. Nem volt hosszú menet.

“Én már jártam Iránban, teljesen máshogy néz ki az az ország belülről, mint amilyen képe a nyugatnak van róla.”
Ez most komoly?
Én meg többször is voltam Törökországban. Akkor most Törökország szakértő lettem?
Katasztrófa ez a “színvonal”.

Te nem értesz valamit. Én azt mondtam közvetve, hogy hirtelen mennyi Irán szakértő lett itt a fórumban miközben nagyjából ugyanannyit tudunk Uránról:semmit.
És ez alól te sem vagy kivétel úgy gondolom.
De tudom: Irán az nem Irak. 

De visszatérve a realításhoz: mindenki gyártja a szcenáriókat de valójában ezen a szinren agmhol mi vagyunk nem tudunk semmit.
Nézzük a múltat: 
Amikor az usa bevonult irakba ugyanez volt a szöveg, hogy az irakiak milyen erősek, sztán az amik legyalulták őket pár hét alatt.
Gáza: ha oda bemegy izrael akkor nagy veszteségeik lesznek. Aztán először függőlegesen meg átlósan mentek át rajta minimális veszteséggel.
Hezbollah: ez nem a Hamász hanem sokkal erősebb.
Aztán őket is megette Izrael.
Most Irán: és a szöveg ugyanaz. Na ők aztán tényleg kenények.
Erre írtam, hogy majd meglátjuk.

Te meg az okoskodásodtól nem.

Majd meglátjuk te kis Irán szakértő.

Meg lehet szerezni úgy us ha usa barátabb kormány kerül hatalomra.

Jánis, amit most leírtál az egy véglet. Biztosra veszem, hogy nem fog bekövetkezni. A világ nem ilyen végletesen működik. Persze nőni fog az olaj ára de nem ilyen mértékben ahogy leírtad. Ez meggyőződésem.

What's driving the surge in M2 in 2025?
Im sure some of you might be scratching their heads as to how monetary supply has been increasing while the Fed have maintained their hawkish discourse and have refrained from cutting.1. A shift in Fed positioningWell, all around them, everything is moving forward as it would in an expansionary cycle, and they'll wait until their sustained high rates break something in markets or the economy and then they're forced to join the party, potentially even forcing them to increase M2 higher.Beyond headline rates, which came down somewhat in 2024, the Fed has pivoted away from its tightening positioning. While rates have so far remained stable in 2025, the Fed has significantly slowed down its quantitative tightening program from $25bn per month to just $5bn per month in balance sheet drawdown.QT was the major source of extracting liquidity from the markets. Higher rates simply kept M2 from growing too fast. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that this would continue even after the debt ceiling is resolved, as they don't want to cause any unnecessary liquidity strains. So the Fed has pivoted, and is clearly moving towards accommodation. The cuts haven't come, yet, but the conditions for accommodative monetary policy are already in place.2. Regulatory easingThere's a more subtle change on the horizon, one which is likely already fuelling the third driver, which is regulatory easing which would encourage banks to beef up their balance sheets.There's a clear incentive of the Treasury to find buyers of US treasuries. During quantitative easing, you had the Fed just buy it all up. During Chinese mega growth, they had huge demand. During Japan's yield curve control, they had huge demand.While foreign demand isn't evaporating, it might not be the growth engine it once was. We've already seen the Chinese reduce their holdings of US treasuries.But to support the mountain of deficits, and without blatant QE, you need to "encourage" private actors to buy more Treasuries (the public might start to question the sustainability and trustworthiness of the US dollar if the printer just goes 'brrrrrr' every few years).One reform which could change this significantly, is the proposed changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a capital rule that forces banks to hold capital against all assets, including Treasuries.In May, regulators let it known that they are considering easing these constraints on banks.Scott Bessent has let Congress know that an overhaul of the rule was one of the highest priorities for regulators.The writing is on the wall for the SLR: they're going to exempt Treasuries, maybe also central bank reserves.It reduces the amount of cash banks need to hold in reserve, which has two effects: 1. it incentivizes more lending. 2. it incentivizes holding more Treasuries.The easing of such regulations is a clear way where we can see that fiscal and regulatory policy can have big impacts on money supply beyond just the Fed.The banking industry expects that the easing could be suggested this summer.This regulatory tweak could easily unclog balance sheets for banks and be conductive to higher M2.3. Increased lending from big banksThe expectation of easing can contribute to increased lending activity from banks.Bank deposit growth has resumed, with domestic deposits having increased for 3 consecutive quarters. In fact, deposits have outpaced growth in loans, which has started to pick up but not at the same rate. This is quite a classic signal in early liquidity cycles, where reserves are ample and provided the right spark, it could really all blow up.Banks are in a position to increase lending, and they've been doing just that.JP Morgan (JPM)'s average loans increased 2% YoY in both Q1 2025 and Q4 2024.Citigroup (C)'s end of period loans increased 4% YOY in Q1, a clear acceleration from the 1% increase in Q4 last year.Bank of America (BAC) has seen an uptick in average loans and leases. +4% in Q1 vs +3% YoY in Q4.Goldman Sachs (GS) has seen its private credit franchise grow rapidly, and Morgan Stanley's (MS) showing an uptick in its security-backed and CRE books.Large bank loan growth is the biggest contributor to deposit creation and M2 expansion — at least in the private sector it is.At the same time, credit-line utilization at the big 6 banks is around 29%, which is well below the 35% peaks we saw in 2020, suggesting that leverage could still increase. Furthermore, loan to deposit ratios remain anemic, near multi decade lows.We're still seeing reserves being added, not released, which could be typical of early expansion as management adds more reserves to prepare for an increase in volumes.That's what I think we're going to see.What we're seeing is that just modest easing from the Fed, a near stop to QT, and some hints of regulatory easing have been enough to plow more money into the system.It should be noted also that household and corporate cash holdings are still huge. There is still $7tn in money market funds, of which much could flow into deposits and into the system if rates were further cut.In other words, the Fed understands that the situation is such that if they cut rates, everything will grow like spring in Montreal after all the leaves, stuck under the frost, created a perfect fertilizer for the weeks after the freezing subsides.We've seen this administration push for easing, and the easing of the SLR is just one example of how they can bypass the Fed. The Fed will eventually cut, especially if inflation continues to calm in upcoming months and unemployment continues to increase. They'll step in and M2 will explode.Conclusion — Market implicationsEverything seems to point in one direction: we are at the beginning of a broader monetary expansion. This will impact markets differently, but in general, the equation is simple:More money in the system increases asset prices.Not all of the expansion of M2 finds itself into the economy, quite a bit of it ends up in assets, which yes, reduces the value of an earned dollar in ways that aren't measured by the CPI. (Life isn't just consumption, it's also the acquisition of assets).At the same time, before we see the cycle fully engage, it's like the Fed is waiting for something to break.I talked about this in my previous article, "The Fed just won't cut".Eventually they will, and it will amplify all the other factors that are already contributing to a higher M2.Historically, rising broad money supports greater investment in risk assets.With a broadening of M2, there's no reason we couldn't see the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX) increase to 7,000. (Note how I subtly introduced my new target for the index, I'll address this in a future article). I'm expecting some pullbacks, especially as we approach 6,000-6,100. But generally, I think we're going higher.Bitcoin (BTC-USD), has an uncanny correlation with Global M2. The US, as the second most abundant source of global currency in the world (after China), has the money supply with the most impact on markets due to its greater velocity. I "called" it on Twitter a few months ago before it blew up. I have call options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT).I expect we will have a lot of volatility, but generally markets are going up.

Die Stimmung am deutschen Wohnimmobilienmarkt dreht sich. Nach der Flaute der vergangenen Jahre nehmen die Zeichen einer nachhaltigen Erholung zu – mit positiven Folgen für die Vonovia-Aktie. Auch eine weitere Qualität des Wohnungskonzerns dürfte nun wieder stärker gefragt sein.Eine aktuelle Umfrage von Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) unter 112 institutionellen und privaten Marktteilnehmern bestätigt den Trend. Demnach rechnen 86 Prozent der Befragten in den kommenden zwölf Monaten mit einer steigenden Zahl an Transaktionen in den sieben größten deutschen Städten. Rund 72 Prozent erwarten auch mehr Aktivität in Sekundärstandorten. Die Preiskurve zeigt ebenfalls nach oben: Etwa die Hälfte der Marktakteure sieht anziehende Preise bei Neubauten und Bestandsobjekten in den Top-Metropolen.Gerade letzteres spielt Vonovia in die Karten. 71 Prozent der Befragten nennen laut C&W-Umfrage den Bestand in Metropolen als bevorzugte Anlageklasse, gefolgt vom Neubau mit 60 Prozent. Berlin, Hamburg und München führen die Standortliste an – allesamt Städte mit substanziellem Vonovia-Bestand. Hinzu kommt: In allen Regionen werden steigende Mieten erwartet. Bei Neubauten in den Top 7 prognostizieren 90 Prozent Mietzuwächse von mindestens 2,5 Prozent, bei Bestandsobjekten sind es 74 Prozent.Besonders spannend: Der Manage-to-Core-Ansatz, bei dem Objekte durch gezielte Investitionen aufgewertet werden, gewinnt an Popularität. Für Vonovia mit ihrer umfassenden Plattformstrategie und großem Entwicklungs-Know-how ergibt sich daraus weiteres Potenzial zur Wertsteigerung des Portfolios.Auch geopolitisch rückt Vonovia ins Blickfeld. Nach dem heutigen militärischen Angriff Israels auf den Iran steigt die Unsicherheit an den Kapitalmärkten erneut spürbar. In diesem Umfeld gewinnen defensive Werte mit stabilen Cashflows und geringer Konjunkturabhängigkeit an Attraktivität. Wohnimmobilien zählen traditionell zu den krisenresistenten Anlageklassen – besonders dann, wenn sie wie bei Vonovia breit diversifiziert und professionell gemanagt sind. Die Aktie dürfte deshalb in den kommenden Tagen verstärkt als sicherer Hafen gesucht sein.

A PB rationak csak a pénzintézetek értékelésénél van jelentősége. Más szektoroknál ahogy tapasztalom felejtős. Növekedés, marzsok és Fcf a lényeg. Azt díjazza a piac.

Én máshonnan közelítem meg a fundamentum és az árfolyam közti divergenciát:
Ugyanaz a baj mint a TUI-nál csak még fokozottabban: a napi kereskedési érték alacsony (kb. 2mio euro) és egy shortos cég oda tolja az árfolyamot ahova csak akarja.
Persze az is lehet, hogy a TUIs tapasztalatom beszél belőlem és paranoiás vagyok.

Vonovia TA magyarázattal a képen:
https://invst.ly/1b02eg

Ahova eddig esett 6,255€ az pontosan a legutóbbi emelkedés fibo61,8% korrekciója.

Tui május közepén jelzett célzónám elérésre került.

Ez a jó:
https://invst.ly/1ak695

Itt is van a link. Május 15-én tettem fel:
https://invst.ly/1ak6vj