Május 20án Putyin Beijingbe látogatott. Lukasenka ma/tegnap van Beijingben.
Az iráni háború brutál geopolitikai leckét adott. Egyrészt megmutatta az USA offenziv kapacitásának abszolút véges mivoltát. Másrészt végképp legitimizálta a tengeri blokádot, mint probléma megoldó eszközt.Valamint megmutatta, hogy Kinának lehet elleneszköze egy távoli blokád ellen, Oroszország és Irán segitségével ellenblokád alá tudja venni a nyugati gáz olaj importokat (elsősorban EU és Ázsia, USA nem szorul importra)
Már pár hete ezen gondolkodom, hogy a kinaiak miért nem kezdik el egyszerűen sajátjuknak kezelni a taiwani kikötőket reptereket és vámot számitani fel rá, erre mi történik?
Intelligence reports and military movements from late June 2026 show that China is systematically laying the operational framework for a blockade. However, the strategy has evolved. Instead of launching a sudden, massive full-scale invasion, Beijing is executing what military analysts call a "quarantine by law enforcement" playbook to choke the island slowly.The concrete actions observed on the water point directly to this preparation:1. The "Eastern Approach" Law Enforcement Push (June 16–28)Historically, the China Coast Guard (CCG) patrolled the Taiwan Strait to the west, while the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) handled the deep waters to the east. In June, that division of labor completely changed:
Az iráni háború brutál geopolitikai leckét adott. Egyrészt megmutatta az USA offenziv kapacitásának abszolút véges mivoltát. Másrészt végképp legitimizálta a tengeri blokádot, mint probléma megoldó eszközt.Valamint megmutatta, hogy Kinának lehet elleneszköze egy távoli blokád ellen, Oroszország és Irán segitségével ellenblokád alá tudja venni a nyugati gáz olaj importokat (elsősorban EU és Ázsia, USA nem szorul importra)
Már pár hete ezen gondolkodom, hogy a kinaiak miért nem kezdik el egyszerűen sajátjuknak kezelni a taiwani kikötőket reptereket és vámot számitani fel rá, erre mi történik?
Intelligence reports and military movements from late June 2026 show that China is systematically laying the operational framework for a blockade. However, the strategy has evolved. Instead of launching a sudden, massive full-scale invasion, Beijing is executing what military analysts call a "quarantine by law enforcement" playbook to choke the island slowly.The concrete actions observed on the water point directly to this preparation:1. The "Eastern Approach" Law Enforcement Push (June 16–28)Historically, the China Coast Guard (CCG) patrolled the Taiwan Strait to the west, while the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) handled the deep waters to the east. In June, that division of labor completely changed:
- The Movement: The CCG has maintained near-continuous patrols east of Taiwan all month. From June 16 to 18, heavily armed Chinese Coast Guard vessels (including the Haijing 2304, which is equipped with a naval-grade 76mm rapid-fire gun) escorted the state-owned oceanographic survey ship Xiang Yang Hong 22 into waters east of the island.
- The Objective: Chinese state media (CCTV channels) explicitly declared these waters as China’s "near-shore waters." By normalizing Coast Guard patrols on the east side, China is attempting to establish de facto jurisdiction over Taiwan's maritime exits to the Pacific.
- On June 25, Taiwan’s military leaked that its recent emergency drills had to simulate a maritime "quarantine" rather than a traditional kinetic blockade.
- In this scenario, Beijing doesn't fire a shot or launch missiles. Instead, they declare a "customs zone," using the CCG to board, inspect, or detain commercial container ships and wafer transports under the guise of domestic law enforcement. This forces international shipping lines to either submit to Beijing's customs tracking or face uninsurable transit risks, effectively isolating Taiwan's ports.
- Operating at Mach 10 with a low, maneuverable flight trajectory, these systems are explicitly designed to deny entry to US carrier strike groups trying to break a blockade from the Philippine Sea. Broadcasting this footage now is a clear signal of kinetic readiness backing up their maritime grey-zone maneuvers.
Tajvan