Mit keszul? Dehogy keszul, oreg macikam :) Toletek vettek a mintat, csak ott egyelore meg van mibol sziporkazni valo, annyi, hogy ha annak csak a fel is tietek lenne (vesszen trianon! ) , akkor nem egeszsegugyi reformon menne a vitazgatas a dunaparton .
BN 05/08 Next Emerging-Market Crisis Is Five Years Away: Andy Mukherjee
Commentary by Andy Mukherjee
May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economist Jeffrey
Frankel has an interesting theory about the timing of the next
emerging-market meltdown.
Capital flows into developing economies, he says, follow a
15-year pattern: ``seven fat years followed by seven lean
years.'' The year between the two phases is when the flow of
money suddenly stops.
Why 15 years?
``After 15 years have gone by, there is somebody new on the
trading desk who did not personally live through the last
crash,'' Frankel said at an April 27 globalization forum,
organized by the International Monetary Fund in Washington.
``They sort of know about it, but it is easier for them to say
the world has changed than if they lost money in it.''
There have been two such cycles in the recent past,
according to Frankel. The first wave began around 1975, following
a sharp increase in oil prices in 1973-74.
After seven years of frenzied recycling of petrodollars into
emerging-market securities, Mexico blew up in 1982.
Then there were seven slow years, before investors came back
to these markets with renewed vigor in the early 1990s.
That boom, which again went on for seven years, ended with
the Asian crisis in 1997.
By this logic, the next blow to emerging-market economies
will come in 2011 or 2012. So all those who envision that the
current subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. will lead to
investors bailing out of risky, emerging-market securities may be
disappointed.
Another Asian Crisis?
The time isn't ripe, yet, for a disaster.
``It is too soon, memories are still fresh,'' Frankel said.
``Argentina and Turkey, they were not that long ago, so I think
it is too soon.''
Could the next meltdown start in Asia?
The region has a seemingly inexhaustible war chest of $2.5
trillion in foreign-exchange reserves.
Besides, most Asian current accounts are now in surplus.
East Asia is no longer financing its economic expansion with
capital borrowed from overseas. Now it is exporting capital --
the region's cumulative current-account surplus was 7 percent of
gross domestic product last year -- to the rest of the world.
All of this makes a currency crisis highly unlikely.
However, other risks remain.
Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC in
New York, is predicting ``a new and different type of financial
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Copyright (c) 2007, Bloomberg, L. P.
Page 2 of 4
crisis in Asia,'' one that's triggered by excessive liquidity and
asset bubbles.
Misaligned Currencies
The risks stem from Asia's currency policies.
China remains reluctant to allow the yuan to trade more
freely. That means other Asian nations won't be able to tolerate
significant currency appreciation without their exports losing
market share to cheap Chinese-made goods in Western markets.
One country that did try to live with faster currency gains
-- Thailand -- had to resort to capital controls to prevent its
exports from sinking under the weight of a stronger baht.
Cheap Asian currencies aren't a free lunch.
The bloated and growing Asian foreign-exchange reserves are
being increasingly financed by an expansion in the monetary base.
Base-money growth in China was 21 percent in 2006, double the
annual average of 2004 and 2005. It was about 20 percent in Korea
in 2006, six times the average in the preceding two years,
according to a World Bank report last month.
Unmistakably, Asia is contributing -- along with
petrodollars and Japanese carry trades -- to a surfeit of global
liquidity and a mispricing of risk.
Trouble Ahead
For now, excesses may continue to build up.
The spread, or the extra yield demanded by investors to hold
dollar-denominated emerging-market bonds instead of risk-free
U.S. securities, has shrunk to about a 10th of its post-Asian
crisis level, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. index.
Those who want to sell you developing-country debt will tell
you what a fine job these nations have done in containing public
debt and inflation. Besides, countries such as Brazil are buying
back dollar bonds, reducing supply; so the high valuations are
warranted, they will say.
Standard & Poor's, which raised the credit rating on eight
out of 34 emerging-market sovereigns and lowered its assessment
on just one in the 12 months through August 2006, is talking
about the need to redefine the ``emerging market'' label, and in
certain cases, even eliminate it.
This excessive show of optimism has ``bubble'' written on it
in bright neon. Yet, investors will wait to see emerging-market
risk turn to zero before being stung by losses.
The same is true for equity.
Morgan Stanley Capital International's MSCI index of
emerging-market shares reached 1000 this week. It has doubled in
2 1/2 years. Don't be surprised if it doubles again.
The bubble is alive and well. It just might keep growing for
the next five years, if Frankel's prophecy is right.
ott meg 1 even belül kb iszonyu gaz lsz...en nem vennek ott semmit olyan instabil a makrogazdasag hogy ihaj......olyan magyar modra nyomjak...csak sokan meg nem jöttek ra... a lej is majd szepen be fog dölni....SZVSZ
Elnok valasztas lesz a hetvegen ( hogy lemondjon e Basescu, vagy maradhat ), aki meg epp az oligarchakat probalna cseszegetni, mint peldaul a Patriciut (rompetrol). Szoval van mitol zakozzanak.
Törölt felhasználó2007. 05. 09. 13:31
#98950
Üdv! Eddig nem is vettem észre, mekkorát zakóztak a mócok. -4,04 %. Nem semmi, de hát volt honnan, a BET meg a SOFIX volt ez európai tőzsdék shanghai-ja az elmúlt hónapokban. Azért biztos holnap legalább a felét visszakorrekciózzák..
Én 470 ismét nyítottam hati shortot , ma nagyobb vissza tesztet vártam , nagyon gyenge a piac. Kivár és sokat emelkedtünk.
Törölt felhasználó2007. 05. 09. 09:45
#98944
Sziasztok! A könyvelőm, a tavalyi tözsdei nyereségemre 4% ekho-t akar befizetettni velem, de én nem hiszek neki. Nekem úgy rémlik, hogy erre a tipusú (normál magyar tözsde) árfolyam nyereségre nem kell fizetni. Tudtok segíteni?
Válaszokat előre is köszönöm!
TIPPSAROK