Nagyot ugrottak az arfolyamok, de forgalom nincs...
Durva short allomanyok vannak egyeblent

Tortent valami egyebkent, amit en nem latok?
Egymasnak feszult az USA es Kina?

Egyebkent a teljes kkritikus asvany szektort, mintha vennek. Nem is kicsi elmozdulasokkal. koztuk az uranium szektort is

Szivesen megneznem, hogy kik shortolltak eddig a CRML-t. Erdekes, hogy kihirdetik, hogy mennyi reszvenyt adnak a European Lithium-rt. Erre masnap, de lehet aznap 27% plusszban. 

A EUR/HUF-ban vajon megvolt a korrekcio? Havin szep ABC-nek nez ki talan

Ey szerintem egy fontos allomasa lesy a tortenetnek.
Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud, Pakistani military chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and will discuss tensions with security chief Mohsen Rezaei.

Egy fel eve nem igy neztek az elorejelzesek, az biztos. Nem tul rozsas most. mIntha hirtelen eltuntek volna azok a kommentek, hogy a kinalat nem lesz eleg.

Lithium S/D — 26 October 2026The most informative change is the supply response. Demand estimates remain strong, but some projected deficits are shrinking as producers expand. The evidence does not support a consensus on uninterrupted shortages through 2027–29.All current views below come from publications within the last three months. Earlier estimates are referenced only to identify revisions. LCE = lithium carbonate equivalent; kt = thousand tonnes.Independent forecasts and changes in view:Canaccord Genuity — October revision, reported 16 and 23 October.
The clearest verified change: raised 2026 demand by 14% to 1.8 million tonnes LCE, yet reduced projected deficits for 2027–29 because supply expectations also increased. It still expects deficits of 3–6% during 2030–35. Its 2027 spodumene price forecast fell 32% to US$1,820/t. Stronger demand therefore did not translate into a more bullish near-term balance.BloombergNEF — 20 October.
Expects new capacity in 2027 to eliminate the current lithium shortfall. This is a capacity-based forecast: commissioning and utilisation determine actual availability. It challenges the sustained-shortage thesis, but disagreement with another forecaster is not itself evidence of a revision.UBS — latest update reported 26 October.
Forecasts 2027 supply growth of 25% against demand growth of 19%, including approximately 445 kt of additional supply. Highlights battery-storage inventories and destocking as near-term risks. No absolute 2027 balance was disclosed in the public reporting.Australian government / DISR — released 2 October.
Its September outlook implies the following annual balances, calculated from published production minus demand:
2027: 150 kt surplus.
2028: 117 kt surplus.
2029: 47 kt surplus.
2030: 32 kt deficit.
2031: 5 kt deficit.
The message remains surplus followed by approximate balance. These calculations are not a separately modelled refined-chemical balance.Fastmarkets — September and October updates.
September anticipated supply growth pushing the market back towards surplus. October emphasised depleted lithium-salt inventories alongside high downstream stocks, with scope for a recovery if purchasing strengthens. This is a mixed inventory assessment, not a confirmed reversal of its annual balance forecast.Benchmark — 22 October.
Expects stationary-storage lithium demand growth to moderate to approximately 5% annually through decade-end. S&P Global’s 12 October review separately expects Asian tightness to ease late in Q4 as feedstock arrives. Neither public update provides a comparable five-year balance series.Producer disclosures require different weighting. Producers have direct operational insight and a commercial incentive to present attractive demand prospects. I place greater weight on their reported output, realised prices, approved investment and commissioning changes than on broad market-demand claims.Albemarle — 4 September presentation.
Its 2030 demand range is 2.9–3.6 million tonnes LCE. The lower bound increased by 100 kt, from 2.8 million tonnes; the upper bound was unchanged. This is a modest upward demand revision, not evidence that the entire market will be undersupplied.SQM — results released 18 August; presentation 19 August.
Raised expected 2026 demand to over 2.1 million tonnes LCE. Its supply plans also matter: the Mt Holland expansion with Wesfarmers is expected to double concentrate capacity, with first expanded production in 2030. The same disclosure supports both demand growth and a substantial supply response.Rio Tinto — 14 October.
Reported lithium production up 33% year-to-date, but now expects output at the lower end of its unchanged 61–64 kt annual guidance range. Slower Sal de Vida ramp-up illustrates why announced capacity should not be treated as delivered supply.PLS — investment decision announced 16 October; financing update 26 October.
Approved the A$1.9 billion P2000 expansion, targeting approximately 2 million tonnes annually of spodumene concentrate, with first production in Q3 2029 and roughly six months of ramp-up. Subsequently completed US$700 million of bond financing. This is a concrete supply commitment within the investment horizon; concentrate tonnes must not be confused with LCE tonnes.Mineral Resources — 23 October.
Quarterly spodumene production increased 17% and sales 8%, while realised prices fell 23%; FY27 guidance was maintained. This is particularly useful operational evidence: rising sales volumes can coexist with deteriorating pricing.My assessment: the additions strengthen the case for tracking actual supply delivery and forecast revisions. Canaccord’s smaller deficits despite higher demand, together with producer expansion commitments, are more informative than optimistic demand headlines alone. Rio’s ramp-up shortfall shows the principal counterweight: execution risk remains material.

A litium piacan eddig is nagyon valtozoak voltak az elorejelzesek. Inkabb a deficit volt ezelott, amire emlekszem. Szerintem ennek nem kellene valtoznia, mert az elmult 6-8 honapban rengeteg upstream problema volt. Keszul egy elemzes, szerintem hamarosan kozze tudom tenni

Trump's $5,000 Payment — Putting the Numbers into Perspective
Trump has promised a one-time $5,000 payment to every adult U.S. citizen, conditional on Republicans winning both chambers of Congress in November 2026.
Assuming approximately 240 million eligible adults, with no income restrictions, the total cost would be around $1.2 trillion.
Now compare that with the U.S. stock market, which trades approximately $1.1 trillion every day.

En gondolkodom egy kis higitason.
Most Kina jelezte, hogy nem tetszik nekik, hogy az USA a technologiak terjedeset korlatozza.
Csak abban nem vagyok meggyozve, hogy berantjak-e ujra a ritka foldfem feket. Most mar van valamennyi kapacitas kiepulve es ha befekeznek meg tobb toke aramlik a cegekbe. Szoval lehet innen mar kontra-produktiv lenne az export korlatozas

Akit erdekek, hogy miert csak 110$ a Brent, annak (ezt a csatornat es) ezt a videot ajanlom. Hajozasi szakerto, de nagyon szepen es objektiven mutat be dolgokat.
https://youtu.be/lOMk6xf1yus

A hetvegen terveztem, hogy kicsit jobban atnezem az arany banyaszokat. De lehet meg nincs ertelme. 

Benne vagyok sajnos es nem most vasarolok be. -60% felett van mindketto. 
Van vagy 20 cegben kis penz, 2 plusszban (NEO, ARA), a tobbi minuszban. De ezekkel raerek. Csak attol tartok, hogy kifogynak a penzbol es higitanak ezeken az arszinteken, igy beszivom. Vagy valaki felvasarolja oket bagoert. De meg vagyok gyozodve, hogy par eves tavlatban mindegyiknek tobbszorozni kellene. 

A Lennart koveti valaki?

Nem lennek meglepve, ha innen jott volna az otlet

En az inflacios adat megjelenese ota kerdezgetem magamat, hogy en nem latok valamit, vagy ennek nincs ertelme, hogy novekvo palyara all az inflacio, erre elkezdik venni a kotvenyeket, hogy beszakad a hozam...

Egyebkent koszi a logikai levezetest, mert sokszor segit gondolkodni. Sokmindenben egyet ertek, azokat nem szoktam/szoktuk beirni. Igy akar kotekedonek is tunhetnek a beirasok. 

Es mindenek elott jobbulast kivanok!

En szivesen olvasom a velemenyedet. Szerintem nincs benne kivetni valo, max nem ertunk egyet :)