1520as visszateszt beleférhet, de ez a max
inkább tenném a bár igen széles, de 1430-1520as zónába az elvárható korrekciót, ha talál egy ideiglenes aljat
commercial banks and reserve based oil & gas lending (aka "RBL"), my banker friend said that all of the oil & gas companies were trying to pump up prices in Q1 so that they could either take out new loans or refinance existing ones. The banks credit departments usually use a 35% loss given default rate, so if oil is @ $100 and nat gas @ $4 at the time the wells and tanks are measureed, than the bank use 65% of that as collateral or $65.00 for oil and $2.60 for gas. Now that they can all post a good quarter of earnings and close on RBL loans, the market is free to tank at least until the next measurement which is like 6 months away. I look at the charts and this makes sense. If you look at oil, it started to make a trend reversal on 3/30-4/1. Crude peaked at $97.67 and has kept dwindling down to what is now around the $87-88 range. This also explains GS exiting crude positions this month. Nat gas should follow suit, but obviously weather played a fundamental reason for keeping prices up longer than usual, as they expected prices to top in early April rather than mid April. Bottom line, sell oil & gas on rallies and stay short for 6 months he said.
Azért ha egy ilyen két nap, péntek hétfői esés (főleg annak döbbenetes mértéke) után ma vagy holnap nem képes komolyabb korrekcióra felfelé akkor abból azért lehet következtetni, hogy mi jön.
Arra gondoltam, hogy amennyiben kialakul és szerintem kialakul egy hosszútávú eső trend arany/ezüstben, akkor az emelkedések=korrekciók során érdemes nyitni a shortot (én így fogok tenni)
Ha lenne pénzed holnap mit vennél max. befektetési idő 1 hónap?