olyat keresek, ahol van real BUX hati könyv
kinek milyen tapasztalata van ezekkel?
TDC, Equi, stb. milyenek? No és Portfolió? Arra elő akartam, de a kártyámat vmiért nem fogadta el fizetéskor, úgyhogy a csekkes választom majd. Sürgős lett volna vmelyik vasárnap, és mostmeg már ráér, úgyhogy megvárom a felmérés eredményét. :)
Nekem az ebroki nagyon jó lenne, ha nem lépne ki folyton, stb. B tervként megtartom azt is, úgyis ha minden jól megy, a külföldi megbízásokon visszahozom az adóelkerülés miatt :)
na megyek vásárolgatni...
The Federal Reserve has raised rates by nearly 4% over the last 18 months, but the consensus among economists is that GDP growth will not slow; forecasts for 2006 are very similar to the 3.5% growth rate achieved by the US economy last year. The Asian equity markets appear to share the optimistic view ? valuations are stretched ?
anticipating that the high returns on equity will continue. A stable long-term valuation measure for Asian equities is price to book value; and on this measure Asian equities are now as expensive as in
1997 (pre tiger crisis) and in 1999 (tech bubble).
Borrowing to spend
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Through 2005, US consumer spending kept growing at a faster pace than income growth as consumers used the opportunity of higher house prices to borrow from the future to spend now. But can this carry on?
Though the absolute number of homeowners refinancing their mortgage is low, the vast majority (80%) of those who are refinancing at current mortgage rates are doing so to take advantage of high house prices to borrow more. But for borrowing to keep adding to consumer firepower, consumers have to borrow more cash this year than they did last year. However, house prices, because of the move up in mortgage rates, are no longer posting substantial gains: the average size of a mortgage taken out now is barely higher than a year ago.
Mini-cycles are dead
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Rather unsurprisingly, the economy is cooling; an increasing number of news stories are reporting economic weakness. But, mini-cycles are dead. A softer economy no longer leads to the automatic stabiliser of lower bond yields and a pick-up in borrowing. Unfortunately, the Fed funds rate has risen so far that there is no room for bond yields to decline substantially, on weaker activity ? to reignite house prices and borrowing. Bond yields are likely to remain high even as the economy continues to slow over the coming months.
Incomes are skewed
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And though consumer incomes are rising, they are heavily skewed.
According to the IRS, the top 1% of US income earners now takes home 17% of total consumer income. Supervised workers, who form 80% of the working population ? clerical, manual, retail and manufacturing workers ? have seen no increase in their pay in real terms over the last decade. And given that the threat to their jobs from emerging economy workers is not lessening, real wages of these supervised workers can only remain flat.
Asian valuations stretched
And it is these supervised workers who have been borrowing and buying the cheaper consumer products made in Asia. Weaker US house price inflation and slower consumer spending, at a time when Asian equity valuations are stretched can only lead to Asia under-performing the US in 2006.
TIPPSAROK